Much has changed since my last snapshot of the top 10 competitors in the juvenile colts division. Several of my featured two-year-olds have recently recorded a race; some of them impressed me greatly, while others demanded I bump them to a lower tier of the list. As quoted from the series's first publication: "the list is based on not only potential, but the horse's current achievements."
Approach my standings with a open mind, and understand that horses removed from the chart can - and will - resurface. One of the greatest things about the juvenile division is the hope shared amongst all race fans; any one of these runners could end up our next classic-winning champion!
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| Uncle Mo winning the '10 Breeders' Cup Juvenile with ease. |
(1) Spurious Precision: Still much my favorite of the two-year-old colts, Spurious Precision is not due to race until the Champagne Stakes (G1) in early October. Like Belmont winner Union Rags, Spurious Precision found easy triumph in this year's Saratoga Special, hoisting the
silks of Klaravich Stables through brutal early fractions of 21.35, 44,
and 1:09.62, and drawing off in the final yards to win in a time of
1:16.53, by a 5 length margin. There's no denying the precocious
brilliance vested in this Rick Violette trainee. Some doubt his ability to stretch out past the sprinting divisions; while I can certainly see where they're coming from, I think he has fairly good odds of making it until at least 1 1/8 miles. Spurious Precision's sire
is High Cotton, who never landed in the winner's circle past 1 1/16
miles. His grandsire is Dixie Union, who recently defied his reputation
as a sire of sprinters with his son Union Rag's Belmont score. Dixie
Union is sired by Dixieland Band, who is the damsire of Kentucky Derby
winners Monarchos and Street Sense. High Cotton's dam is Happy Tune, who
is sired by the great routing sire / Belmont + BC Classic winner, A.P.
Indy. A.P. Indy is sired by Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew. Spurious
Precision's dam, Scarlet Combo, is sired by Scarlet Ibis: a little-known
sire who mostly produced sprinters such as Wild Wings, her daughter
White Ibis, and Ruby Rubles. Scarlet Ibis was sired by Cormorant, who
finished fourth in the Preakness and won the one and one-sixteenth mile
Jersey Derby and Gotham Stakes. Spurious Precision's granddam is Don't
Combo, who was sired by Right Combination, who traces back to Round
Table and Princequillo. If you
still believe in dosage indexes, good for you! Spurious Precision's dosage of 1.55 is
almost ideal.
(2) Uncaptured: Now a perfect 4 for 4 following a recent victory in the Swynford Stakes, Uncaptured certainly seems a force to be reckoned with. Although I'd like to see him race somewhere other than Woodbine, it cannot be said that Uncaptured has not dealt with powerful foes. In his second start, he defeated near-track-record-setter Jocosity by a whopping 5 lengths; an act that may be but a pale telling of the success yet to come. His grandsire is
Tale of the Cat, who was sired by Storm Cat. Lion Heart's dam, Satin
Sunrise, raced an astounding 78 times. Uncaptured's broodmare sire is
Arch, winner of the 10 furlong Super Derby and sire of Blame, Arravale,
and Hymn Book; he is also the broodmare sire of I'll Have Another and Uncle
Mo. Uncaptured's granddam is Andrea Ruckus, whose sire, Bold Ruckus, is
sired by Boldnesian, Seattle Slew's grandsire. While there's a lot of
sprinting power in Uncaptured's pedigree, there's stamina, too: he
should be able to stretch his limbs for a good many more furlongs.
(3) Maybe So: In both of his two races -- a maiden special weight
and the Mountaineer Juvenile Stakes -- this brown colt has emerged with a
perfect record still intact. Whether it was in his pace-setting first
performance, or his mad rally down the Mountaineer stretch, Maybe So has
consistently impressed upon me his potential for greatness. His sire,
More Than Ready, won the Sanford Stakes, placed fourth in the Kentucky
Derby, and won the GI King's Bishop. He has sired three BC winners:
Pluck (Juvenile Turf), Regally Ready (Turf Sprint), and More Than Real
(Juvenile Fillies' Turf). Maybe So's grandsire is Southern Halo, the
most successful sire in Argentine history: among his 167 stakes winners
is Edenwold, who won the Queen's Plate. More Than Ready's dam is
Woodman's Girl, who was sired by Woodman; the sire of Belmont +
Preakness winner Hansel, BC Juvenile + Preakness winner Timber Country,
One Thousand Guineas winner Bosra Sham, and Queen's Plate winner
Woodcarver. Woodman traces back to the Nearco line on both his paternal
and maternal sides. Maybe So's damsire, Grand Slam, won the 1 1/8 mile
Peter Pan Stakes, and sired graded stakes victor Limehouse and BC Sprint
winner Cajun. He is sired by Gone West. Maybe So's granddam is stakes
placed Pine for Me, who is sired by Preakness winner Pine Bluff. Maybe
So's pedigree suggests that stretching out in distance should be little
of a problem -- I look forward to watching him run, and hopefully bump
up further in my personal rankings.
(4) Know More: Although he is no longer undefeated after a second-place finish in the Del Mar Futurity (G2), I remain confident in Know More's ability to thrive off added ground. Know More is sired by Lion Heart, a stallion best known for
finishing second to Smarty Jones in the 2004 Kentucky Derby. His
grandsire is Tale of the Cat, the sire of Gio Ponti, Take of Ekati,
Spellbinder, and Catboat. Tale of the Cat is sired by Storm Cat, whom is
widely known for producing distance champions such as Bluegrass Cat,
Courageous Cat, and Tabasco Cat. Lion Heart's dam, Satin Sunrise, raced
78 times in the claiming ranks, winning at distances of up to 1 1/8
miles. Know More's damsire is the great Seattle Slew. In addition to
winning the Triple Crown, Seattle Slew is known for siring Grade 1
winners such as A.P. Indy, Landaluce and Slew O' Gold. He is the
grandsire of Rags to Riches, Bernardini, and Lava Man, and the broodmare
sire of Cigar. One of Seattle Slew's sons, Slewacide, served as
broodmare sire to dual classic champ Funny Cide. Know More's granddam is
Qui Bid, who was sired by Derby and Preakness winner Spectacular Bid. Don't be shied away by his recent runner-up; Know More has real potential for making a splash in the longer-distanced races.
(To read more about Know More, read
my article about him)
(5) Jocosity: While victorious in only one of his three starts, I
believe that Jocosity has as much of a right to this list as any of the
undefeated, one-race wonders. Not only in his seven length, five and
one-half furlong score -- nearly track-record breaking in a zippy time
of 1:02.85 -- has Jocosity displayed his brilliance; this colt's
bloodline is festooned with stamina. His sire, Sharp Humor, finished
second to Barbaro in the Florida Derby prior to fading to 18th in the
Kentucky Derby. Sharp Humor is sired by Distorted Humor, who has made
his name known internationally as the sire of champions Funny Cide,
Commentator, and Drosselmeyer; recently, Distorted Humor served as the
grandsire to Triple Crown star I'll Have Another. Sharp Humor's dam is
Bellona, whose sire, Hansel, won both the Preakness and the Belmont.
Hansel's sire, Woodman, is also the sire of Timber Country, Bosra Sham,
and Woodcarver. Jocosity's broodmare sire, Stormy Atlantic, is sired by
the ever-popular Storm Cat. His dam, Hail Atlantis, was sired by Seattle
Slew. Jocosity's damsire is Carson City Sham, whose sire - Carson City -
served as the broodmare sire for the late, great Barbaro and recently
retired Havre de Grace. Carson City Sham's dam, Sham Say, was a Grade I
winning mare who traces back to Secretariat's greatest rival (and one of
my favorite racehorses), Sham. Although it's unlikely that Jocosity
will add his name to the elite list of those found in his ancestry, a
future among the classic-distance races is very real possibility.
(6) Fredericksburg: A horse who should be receiving much more
attention than he is; following a green first performance in which he
finished fourth, Fredericksburg easily conquered a 1 1/16 mile MSW over
the Saratoga turf course. Trained by Michael Matz, who is known for
conditioning slow developers, Fredericksburg shows promise not only in
having covered distance this early in his career, but in his pedigree as
well. His sire, Speightstown, was a 6-7 furlong horse who won the BC
Sprint; while he is mostly known as a sire of sprinters, Jockey Club
Gold Cup winner Haynesfield stands among his most accomplished
offspring. Speightstown's sire is Gone West: the sire of Belmont winner
Commendable, grandsire of Smarty Jones, and damsire of Union Rags.
Speightstown's dam is Silken Cat, who won at 1 1/16 miles in one of her
four starts. Silken Cat is sired by Storm Cat, who sired dozen of Grade 1
winners throughout his stud career, among which are routers Courageous
Cat, Tabasco Cat, and Bluegrass Cat. Fredericksburg's dam is
Choreograph, who also won at 1 1/16 miles on the turf. His broodmare
sire is the late Dynaformer; a sire considered by many to be one of the
most reliable branches of stamina in the business. Among others
Dynaformer sired Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro, Melbourne Cup winner
Americain, St. Leger winner Lucarno, and Breeders' Cup Grand National
winner McDynamo. Dynaformer himself is sired by Epsom Derby winner
Roberto. Fredericksburg's broodmare sire is Dance for Vanny. With a
pedigree like this - teeming with stamina - Fredericksburg has only to
prove that he's speedy enough (and dirt-efficient) to keep up with the
rest of this crop. If so, I have great faith in his abilities to fly
down the stretch and topple the favorites.
(7) Micromanage: Yet another Repole/Pletcher colt to hit it
big-time onto the juvenile scene, Micromanage won brilliantly in his
only race -- a 7 furlong MSW that he nabbed by five-lengths. While
undeniably speedy, Micromanage's bloodlines (Medaglia d'Oro x Catnip)
harbor several good reasons that he might hit the spotlights in next
year's classic races.
(8) Java's War: After finishing fifth in his debut, Java's War conquered both a one-mile turf MSW and the Sunday Silence Stakes -- in which he rallied late to topple Brown Almighty, the heavily-backed favorite. Although this colt has never raced off of the turf, I believe he has a very bright future in whatever surface or distance he chooses to purse. His sire is War Pass, who won the BC Juvenile (G1) and finished second in the Wood Memorial (G1). War Pass was sired by Cherokee Run, who won the Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1), the 1 1/8 mile Dwyer Stakes (G2), and finished second by half a length in the Preakness Stakes. Java's War's dam is Java, who won up to 10 furlongs on the turf. His second dam is Island Jamboree, who was a stakes winner at 1 mile; her sire was Explodent, who was sired by the great router Nearctic.
(9) Arch Warrior: Even before he broke his maiden by a romping
three-lengths, Arch Warrior was surrounded by a hype worth of a horse
who'd already won the 2-Year-Old Championships. Scores of race fans have
Arch Warrior labeled as either their Derby horse or their top
two-year-old -- and only after a 6 furlong triumph clocked in a time of
1:10. While I refuse to buy in to the extent of the gossip until this
colt has proven himself against more seasoned competition, I can't deny
him a spot on the lower tiers of my Top 10 list. However over-fantasized
this Pletcher trainee may have become, he is still a talented colt with
a promising heritage. I won't go into depth about Archwarrior's
pedigree, but in brief: his dosage profile of 6-3-18-3-0 is only a
foretelling of the multiple distance strains nested in the branches of
his Arch - Winner's Edge family tree.
(10) Onetwentyeight: Although Onetwentyeight failed to triumph in his most recent
outing - the Sanford Stakes - I still harbor firm beliefs in this colt's
ability to survive the long distances, and ultimately, shine. In the
Sanford, he rallied valiantly into the stretch, and while it was only
enough to secure himself third, Onetwentyeight proceeded to gallop out
in front of his rivals. His sire is Discreet Cat, who suffered a
throat abscess in his only distance attempt. Discreet Cat is sired by
Forestry, who sired the 2011 Preakness winner, Shackleford. Discreet
Cat's dam, Pretty Discreet, found victory in the 10 furlong Alabama
Stakes; her sire, Private Account, won the Jim Dandy Stakes.
Onetwentyeight's dam is Box of Joy, an unraced mare sired by the great
Concerto, who triumphed at distances of up to 10 furlongs. Concerto's
sire is Chief's Crown, who won the Travers Stakes and finished in the
money in all three of the Triple Crown races. Make no mistake about it
-- Onetwentyeight is bred for distance. As the ground increases, expect
his abilities to follow suit.
Honorable Mentions
Shanghai Bobby: Undefeated and having just emerged from a
fantastic triumph in the Hopeful Stakes, Shanghai Bobby has landed
himself on the top of all handicappers' radar. Headed toward the
Champagne Stakes, and possibly the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, there is much
to look forward to from this powerful son of Harlan's Holiday. Although
certainly wowed by all three of his performances, I do not place
Shanghai Bobby on my Top 10 list because of the
distance limitations in his pedigree.
Bern Identity: Once residing on the top of my list, Bern Identity has been bumped
into the honorable mentions following a dull, third-place effort in the
Hopeful Stakes. Although I believe there may be more distance than speed
in his pedigree, there is no excusing how Bern Identity lacked response
when called upon into the stretch of the 7 furlong affair. I have not
given up on this colt, however, and highly anticipate his next start.
Brown Almighty: Like Bern Identity, Brown Almighty was recently placed on the top rungs of my list. I have removed him following a narrow loss to Java's War in the ungraded Sunday Silence Stakes. While I have
by no means given up on this colt, he was given a cozy trip against an ungraded field, yet seemed to fold toward the end. I do realize, however, that he was ushered to the lead much sooner than his connections would have liked; perhaps in his next start he can redeem his lost ranking with a better trip and, of course, a win (this time against graded stakes competition, I hope!)
Triple Cross: A hard-trying gelding I wrote about in one of my
last blog posts. Though he has never found victory in a stakes event, Triple Cross has never finished out of the money in his five races. I envision him as more of a miler than an upper-distance type; regardless, he has a hopeful future in many of the middle-distance stakes events.
