With the Breeders' Cup only a few, short months away, it is time to make my first list of the top ten juvenile colts. While not all of these are definite for the Breeders' Cup, or headed into the same division, they all share a knack for running and an enviably bright future. Of course, it was very tough to rank these colts on a best-to-worst standpoint: understand that many of the top positions could be easily exchanged for one another, and that the list is based on not only potential, but the horse's current achievements. Approach the rankings with an open mind, and don't hesitate from signing up and posting your own in the comments' section!
(1) Bern Identity: A bay son of Bernstein and Maddalena, Bern Identity sailed onto the juvenile scene with a domineering 13-length victory in his second career start. Most recently, he rallied to victory in the Sanford Stakes over Handsome Jack and Onetwentyeight. While the final time for the Sanford has been noted by many as an underachievement, Bern Identity could be the type to blossom with added ground -- it depends what side of his family you choose to zoom in on. His grandsire is Storm Cat, who has produced distance champions such as Courageous Cat, Tabasco Cat and Bluegrass Cat. His sire's dam is La Affirmed, who was sired by Affirmed, the last of the Triple Crown winners. La Affirmed's dam is La Mesa, who was sired by the great Round Table. Bern Identity's dam, Maddalena, was a sprinter, as was his broodmare sire, Good and Tough -- whose father is sprinter-producing Carson City. Bern Identity's granddam, Two Foxie, was also a struggling 6 furlong horse. Like Belmont winner Union Rags, Bern Identity hosts a thoroughly confusing pedigree -- while one side sparkles with stamina, the other falls far short. Trainer Kelly Breen has expressed an interest in racing this colt in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint; his performance in next Monday's Hopeful may have much impact on both the trainer's decision, and my personal opinion on the colt's abilities.
(2) Brown Almighty: A gorgeous horse with fan-friendly connections, it's hard not to fall for Brown Almighty's splendor. Undefeated thus far in his two, grass-based races, the chestnut colt has kicked off his career much in the style of his dual classic winning sire, Big Brown. While it's yet to be found how Brown Almighty will take to a dirt surface, there's little in his pedigree to suggest that the surface change -- which his owners have confirmed will take place next spring -- should negatively effect his closing kick. His sire, Big Brown, may be best known not for his victories in the Derby and Preakness, but for the steroids he was found to have illegally raced on. While it's debatable how the drugs affected -- or didn't affect -- his brilliant performance, what
is known is that Big Brown's career was plagued by continual hoof issues; we can only hope that his offspring inherit his talent, not his feet. Brown Almighty's grandsire is Boundary, who raced only 8 times, and was twice a Grade III winner at the distance of 6 furlongs. Boundary was sired by Danzig, who won all three of his races before retiring due to knee issues. He is best known as the sire of the prolific GI winners Pine Bluff, Langfuhr, and Hard Spun. In addition, Danzig is the grandsire of Canadian Triple Crown winner Wando, and the damsire of Fusaichi Pegasus. Through Northern Dancer, both Danzig and Big Brown's dam lead us back to the great distance influence of Nearctic. Brown Almighty's damsire, Gone for Real, tends to produce shorter-distanced runners. Gone for Real is sired by Gone West, whose sons include Belmont winner Commendable, BC Mile champion Da Hoss, and 2000 Guineas victor Zafonic. He is the damsire of Belmont winner Union Rags, and the grandsire of Smarty Jones. All in all, Brown Almighty's pedigree -- while not the flashiest out there -- contains more than its share of distance ancestry. Don't be surprised if this chestnut colt goes on to perform great feats.
(3) Spurious Precision: In this year's Saratoga Special, Spurious Precision hoisted the silks of Klaravich Stables through brutal early fractions of 21.35, 44, and 1:09.62, and drew off in the final yards to win in a time of 1:16.53, by a 5 length margin. There's no denying the precocious brilliance vested in this Rick Violette trainee. He's undefeated in both his races, and is heading toward the Champagne Stakes -- just like last year's 'Special winner, Union Rags. If he can stretch out in distance, Spurious Precision has a guaranteed berth at the top of my Derby Top 10 list. His pedigree is unclear on the matter. Spurious Precision's sire is High Cotton, who never landed in the winner's circle past 1 1/16 miles. His grandsire is Dixie Union, who recently defied his reputation as a sire of sprinters with his son Union Rag's Belmont score. Dixie Union is sired by Dixieland Band, who is the damsire of Kentucky Derby winners Monarchos and Street Sense. High Cotton's dam is Happy Tune, who is sired by the great routing sire / Belmont + BC Classic winner, A.P. Indy. A.P. Indy is sired by Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew. Spurious Precision's dam, Scarlet Combo, is sired by Scarlet Ibis: a little-known sire who mostly produced sprinters such as Wild Wings, her daughter White Ibis, and Ruby Rubles. Scarlet Ibis was sired by Cormorant, who finished fourth in the Preakness and won the one and one-sixteenth mile Jersey Derby and Gotham Stakes. Spurious Precision's granddam is Don't Combo, who was sired by Right Combination, who traces back to Round Table and Princequillo. I believe that Spurious Precision has very good odds of stretching out to at least 1 1/8 miles, if not more. If you still believe in dosage indexes, good for you! His dosage of 1.55 is almost ideal.
(4) Know More: In his only career start, J. Paul Reddam's Know More became the only first-time starter in Del Mar's history to nab a graded stakes event. For obvious reasons, this landed the handsome, bay colt near the top of my juvenile watch list. While the field for the Best Pal Stakes wasn't stellar, Know More was visually impressive in his thrilling dash down the stretch en route to a clear triumph. This colt's pedigree suggests that he should gobble up the added ground with a smile on his face. Know More is sired by Lion Heart, a stallion best known for finishing second to Smarty Jones in the 2004 Kentucky Derby. His grandsire is Tale of the Cat, the sire of Gio Ponti, Take of Ekati, Spellbinder, and Catboat. Tale of the Cat is sired by Storm Cat, whom is widely known for producing distance champions such as Bluegrass Cat, Courageous Cat, and Tabasco Cat. Lion Heart's dam, Satin Sunrise, raced 78 times in the claiming ranks, winning at distances of up to 1 1/8 miles. Know More's damsire is the great Seattle Slew. In addition to winning the Triple Crown, Seattle Slew is known for siring Grade 1 winners such as A.P. Indy, Landaluce and Slew O' Gold. He is the grandsire of Rags to Riches, Bernardini, and Lava Man, and the broodmare sire of Cigar. One of Seattle Slew's sons, Slewacide, served as broodmare sire to dual classic champ Funny Cide. Know More's granddam is Qui Bid, who was sired by Derby and Preakness winner Spectacular Bid. If Know More continues to run with the style and professionalism that we saw in his debut, I have little doubt that Doug O'Neill has found himself a serious BC Juvenile contender. (To read more about Know More, read
my article about him)
(5) Uncaptured: Three times Uncaptured has gone to post -- three times he was greeted by a wave of grins in his winner's circle reception. While he has never raced outside of Woodbine, Uncaptured is one of the untried sorts who sparkle with potential in each step they take. In his second race -- the Clarendon Stakes -- Uncaptured defeated future winner and near-track-record setter Jocosity (who I like quite a bit) by over 5 lengths; which is but a pale telling of the dominance that may be yet to come from this son of Lion Heart. His grandsire is Tale of the Cat, who was sired by Storm Cat. Lion Heart's dam, Satin Sunrise, raced an astounding 78 times. Uncaptured's broodmare sire is Arch, winner of the 10 furlong Super Derby and sire of Blame, Arravale, and Hymn Book; he is the broodmare sire of I'll Have Another and Uncle Mo. Uncaptured's granddam is Andrea Ruckus, whose sire, Bold Ruckus, is sired by Boldnesian, Seattle Slew's grandsire. While there's a lot of sprinting power in Uncaptured's pedigree, there's stamina, too: he should be able to stretch his limbs for a good many more furlongs.
(6) Maybe So: In both of his two races -- a maiden special weight and the Mountaineer Juvenile Stakes -- this brown has emerged with a perfect record still intact. Whether it was in his pace-setting first performance, or his mad rally down the Mountaineer stretch, Maybe So has consistently impressed upon me his potential for greatness. His sire, More Than Ready, won the Sanford Stakes, placed fourth in the Kentucky Derby, and won the GI King's Bishop. He has sired three BC winners: Pluck (Juvenile Turf), Regally Ready (Turf Sprint), and More Than Real (Juvenile Fillies' Turf). Maybe So's grandsire is Southern Halo, the most successful sire in Argentine history: among his 167 stakes winners is Edenwold, who won the Queen's Plate. More Than Ready's dam is Woodman's Girl, who was sired by Woodman; the sire of Belmont + Preakness winner Hansel, BC Juvenile + Preakness winner Timber Country, One Thousand Guineas winner Bosra Sham, and Queen's Plate winner Woodcarver. Woodman traces back to the Nearco line on both his paternal and maternal sides. Maybe So's damsire, Grand Slam, won the 1 1/8 mile Peter Pan Stakes, and sired graded stakes victor Limehouse and BC Sprint winner Cajun. He is sired by Gone West. Maybe So's granddam is stakes placed Pine for Me, who is sired by Preakness winner Pine Bluff. Maybe So's pedigree suggests that stretching out in distance should be little of a problem -- I look forward to watching him run, and hopefully bump up in my personal rankings.
(7) Jocosity: While victorious in only one of his three starts, I believe that Jocosity has as much of a right to this list as any of the undefeated, one-race wonders. Not only in his seven length, five and one-half furlong score -- nearly track-record breaking in a zippy time of 1:02.85 -- has Jocosity displayed his brilliance; this colt's bloodline is festooned with stamina. His sire, Sharp Humor, finished second to Barbaro in the Florida Derby prior to fading to 18th in the Kentucky Derby. Sharp Humor is sired by Distorted Humor, who has made his name known internationally as the sire of champions Funny Cide, Commentator, and Drosselmeyer; recently, Distorted Humor served as the grandsire to Triple Crown star I'll Have Another. Sharp Humor's dam is Bellona, whose sire, Hansel, won both the Preakness and the Belmont. Hansel's sire, Woodman, is also the sire of Timber Country, Bosra Sham, and Woodcarver. Jocosity's broodmare sire, Stormy Atlantic, is sired by the ever-popular Storm Cat. His dam, Hail Atlantis, was sired by Seattle Slew. Jocosity's damsire is Carson City Sham, whose sire - Carson City - served as the broodmare sire for the late, great Barbaro and recently retired Havre de Grace. Carson City Sham's dam, Sham Say, was a Grade I winning mare who traces back to Secretariat's greatest rival (and one of my favorite racehorses), Sham. Although it's unlikely that Jocosity will add his name to the elite list of those found in his ancestry, a future among the classic-distance races is very real possibility.
(8) Onetwentyeight: Although Onetwentyeight failed to triumph in his most recent outing - the Sanford Stakes - I still harbor firm beliefs in this colt's ability to survive the long distances, and ultimately, shine. In the Sanford, he rallied valiantly into the stretch, and while it was only enough to secure himself third, Onetwentyeight proceeded to gallop out in front of his rivals. His sire is Discreet Cat, who suffered a throat abscess in his only distance attempt. Discreet Cat is sired by Forestry, who sired the 2011 Preakness winner, Shackleford. Discreet Cat's dam, Pretty Discreet, found victory in the 10 furlong Alabama Stakes; her sire, Private Account, won the Jim Dandy Stakes. Onetwentyeight's dam is Box of Joy, an unraced mare sired by the great Concerto, who triumphed at distances of up to 10 furlongs. Concerto's sire is Chief's Crown, who won the Travers Stakes and finished in the money in all three of the Triple Crown races. Make no mistake about it -- Onetwentyeight is bred for distance. As the ground increases, expect his abilities to follow suit.
(9) Archer Hill: In his only race - an unusual maiden run at the distance of 1 1/16 miles on the turf - Archer Hill rallied late to register a clear, one length victory in a final time of 1:43.82. True, this horse has yet to race against the best of them; but since I love seeing the babies already racing at these distances, I can't help but to include him on the rim of my top ten list. Archer Hill's sire is Big Brown, making him a half brother to the much more popular Brown Almighty. Archer Hill's dam, La Femme Galante, is sired by Peter Pan & Champagne winner Grand Slam. Grand Slam is sired by Gone West; his dam is Bright Candles, who finished third in the Kentucky Oaks and Black-Eyed Susan. Archer Hill's granddam is Dahl, who is sired by Irish Tower. There is a very good deal of endurance packed into Archer's Hill's bloodlines. He is certainly one to watch for in future races -- who knows? He could become as popular as Brown Almighty.
(10) Overanalyze: As a fan of Uncle Mo, Stay Thirsty, Caixa Eletronica, and just the Repole Stable is general, of course I'm inclined to tuck Overanalyze into the "buffer zone" of my list. His only race, a 5 furlong maiden special weight, he won in the respectable time of 57.48. His sire, Dixie Union, may be known for siring sprinting horses (aside from Union Rags), but his grandsire - Dixieland Band - was the broodmare sire of Kentucky Derby winners Monarchos and Street Sense. His sire is the great Northern Dancer, who dates back to the stamina-packed line of Nearco and Nearctic. Dixieland Band's dam, She's Tops, is sired by Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Capote, who is sired by Seattle Slew. Overanalyze's damsire is Unaccounted For, who won the Whitney (GI) and Jim Dandy (GII), both at one and one eighth miles. In the U.S, one of his most successful runners is Grundlefoot, winner of the Baltimore Breeders' Cup Handicap (GIII) at 1 1/8 miles, and the Kelso at 1 3/16. Unaccounted For is sired by Private Account, who also won the Jim Dandy (GIII) and the Widener Handicap (GI), at 10 furlongs. Private Account was the sire of the great, undefeated Personal Ensign. Overanalyze's granddam is Cloud's Ambre, who is sired by Two Punch -- a stallion known for his ability to produce sprinters such as GI winner Smoke Gla
cken. While there are some areas of his pedigree a bit shadier than others, Overanalyze appears to be a horse capable of traveling up to 1 1/8 miles -- if not more. Like the rest of the two-year-olds on this list, I look forward to watching him run.
