2012 Preakness Stakes: a Look at the Field

It seems like yesterday that I was crouched at the rail of Churchill Downs, cheering on my hopeless choices as they floundered down the homestretch.

Bodemeister was loose on the lead (or so it seemed from my crowded vantage point), and he was going to wire the field -- but wait.
Here came a muddy chestnut -- who was it? -- I rocked onto my tiptoes, squinting to see past the feathered rims of festive hats. #19, flashed the tote board.
I deflated with a shaky breath. The women around me cawing like crows ("I think I've won! I think I've won!"), I fell to my racing form with a numb stare. At odds of 15-1, I'll Have Another had won the Kentucky Derby.

For me, there ended 9 months of delicately skeptic dreaming. Union Rags had not won the Derby.. the Triple Crown was out. But is it? With the bay colt reserved for the Belmont, this Saturday's Preakness field looms large and bright and colorful. 11 colts are chiseled to perfection for the most exhilarating race of their lives. I've studied each carefully over the past few weeks (months, in some's cases), and come to conclusion about each contender. I've listed them below in order of post position.
Read my opinions, and feel free to share your own thoughts in the comments!


Shackleford, winner of the 2011 Preakness Stakes.

1)   Tiger Walk:  Fourth in both the Gotham Stakes and Wood Memorial. Doesn't seem to face up against the better competition with much success. In addition, he likes to come from off the pace -- a running style usually stomped in the Preakness, where speed horses get the nod. Shouldn't come near the winner's circle.


2)   Teeth of the Dog: Third in the Wood Memorial. Shows some early speed, which could play to his advantage; will most likely stalk the pace. Finished with energy in the Wood, but was no match for the top two (Alpha and Gemologist, who didn't fare well in the Derby). Regardless, he has shown visible improvement with each start. Coming off a nice rest, if Teeth of the Dog has gotten any better, he may hit the money - or come close - in the Preakness. For more about Teeth of the Dog, look here.


3)   Pretension: Ninth in the Illinois Derby, which was ran in the slowest time in the race's history. Won his last race, the Canonero II, which took place at Pimlico -- the one good thing on his spotty resume. I see no reason for Pretension to finish in the top half of the field.


4)   Zetterholm: A long shot that I'm fond of, Zetterholm has won his last 3 races. None of them were in deep competition, and all were at Aqueduct, but he got the job done with a last-to-first sweep. His closing style may or may not serve him well in the Preakness; the horses Zetterholm has had to catch are nothing in comparison to the speedy Bodemeister. His sire, Silver Train, never won past 1 mile, and Zetterholm has never raced past 1 mile & 70 yards. Regardless, I think that this is a colt with Preakness potential. To read more about Zetterholm, look here.


5)   Went the Day Well: Fourth in the Kentucky Derby, winner of the Spiral Stakes. Following a troubled start, he ran the last half mile of the Kentucky Derby faster than any other horse in it. The Preakness may provide him with a great opportunity to set straight his record.


6)   Creative Cause: A tough horse who has hit the board against some of the grittiest 3 year olds around. 5th in the Derby, 2nd in the San Felipe, 3rd in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile. If he gets everything sorted out, may be a monstrous force to reckon with in Saturday's Preakness. However, if the Derby has taken anything out of Creative Cause, he may not be ready to again take on the top competition. I would avoid betting on him.


7)   Bodemeister: Second in the Kentucky Derby after setting the 4th fastest early fractions in the race's history. It's nothing short of amazing that this colt held on for the place -- every other horse to set such blitzing fractions has fallen back to about 10th. He has never finished worse than second; his record reads "second, first, second, first, second (that being the Derby)", implying that it may take him one race to figure things out. My concern is that the Derby may have dulled him.. but if not, look out for a runaway win from Bodemeister.



8)   Daddy Nose Best: Coming off a bad start in the Derby that resulted in a 10th place finishing. Seems to preform better against lesser competition (El Camino Real Derby, Sunland Derby). Not a good choice in the Prealness Stakes.


9)   I'll Have Another: Got a great ride from Mario Gutierrez to steal the Kentucky Derby over a tiring Bodemeister. An excellent 3 for 3 in his 2012 career -- a colt who seems to want to win (just watch his ears as they prick up as he passes the finish). In the Derby, he posted a career-best Equibase speed figure of 108. But the shorter distance of the Preakness, it may be harder for the chestnut colt to catch a front-running Bodemeister. If he is to win the Preakness, I'll Have Another will need to be on the top of his game -- of course, a nice trip would help, as will the sharp works he has been posting at Pimlico.


10)   Optimizer: Although I'm a believer in long shots of all sorts, Optimizer gives me no reason to jump onto his boat. His best start was a second in the Rebel, after which he was 9th in the Arkansas and 11th in the Derby. No, not a chance.


11)   Cozzetti: 3rd in the Tampa Bay Derby, 4th in the Arkansas Derby. A decent horse, but only a winner of one race in 7 starts. He closes decently, but not enough to get the job done -- particularly in the Preakness. Speed will rule the day.


My Selections:


I'll Have Another


Bodemeister


Zetterholm

Preakness Contender: Zetterholm

Despite having never raced past 1 mile & 70 yards, Zetterholm will be making his graded stakes debut in the 137th running of the Preakness Stakes.

The bay colt, a son of the stakes-winning Silver Train, is trained by Richard Dutrow Jr. and owned by Winter Park Partners. Zetterholm began his career last November with trainer Stephen DeMauro, in a maiden special weight (6 1/2 furlongs) at Calder Race Course. He came home a lackluster 11th.
The colt was switched to the barn of Rick Dutrow Jr. and moved to Aqueduct for his first start of 2012.
He galloped home second in the one mile event, beaten by seven lengths -- his last loss to date.

The colt broke his maiden next time out, this time going 1 mile & 70 yards over Aqueduct's inner dirt. His next win came in an allowance at the same distance. Zetterholm trailed the field until the turn, where he made an amazing rally to prevail by a half length over stakes-placed Coalition. The final time was 1:42 on a track rated as fast.

The Dutrow trainee took a jump in class in his next start, the Patsyprospect Stakes. Again coming from far behind, he easily put away the small field by 2 1/4 lengths under a mild hand ride. Among the defeated were Sportswriter and Coalition, both placed in blacktype events. The mile-long race was clocked at 1:37 and change.

The Preakness may prove a huge challenge for such a lightly raced colt. Although the winner of 3 consecutive races, Zetterholm has yet to face real competition. The ease in which he won the Patsyprospect was certainly inspiring -- but is to be noted that his sire, Silver Train, never won past 1 mile. The added distance of the Preakness Stakes coupled with the top tier horses may be enough to see Zetterholm come home off the board.

Still, this colt is to be taken note of for future races. He has shown to have a powerful late kick; his running style may entice the longer distances in spite of his sprinters' pedigree.
Although I have my doubts about this Holy Wish colt, Zetterholm may yet prove me wrong.



Zetterholm winning with his ears pricked; a sign of energy and lack of fatigue.

Preakness Contender: Teeth of the Dog

As the dust settles from the 138th rendition of America's most startling race, all eyes are on the big names.

Can I'll Have Another win the Triple Crown? Will the 1 1/8 mile Preakness set up to serve the speedy Bodemeister? Is it still possible for Union Rags to triumph in the Belmont? 

Brilliant questions for brilliant horses -- but don't declare it a fight of favorites. Several long shots will slip to the Preakness as deftly and quietly as maiden claimers; one may emerge in a swarm of cameras. 

To prevent being among those yelping "who was that?", let's take a closer look at one of the more jaded contenders.

Trained by Micheal Matz, owned by J.W. Singer, LLC, Teeth of the Dog is the perfect instance of an under-the-radar long shot. 

So far as most are concerned, Micheal Matz has one good horse -- his name? Union Rags, runner-up in the Juvenile, third in the Florida Derby, seventh in the Kentucky Derby.

As everyone knows, Union rags will not be running in the Preakness Stakes; but don't count out Matz for a sudden score.

Although his resume is far from flashy, Teeth of the Dog is a solid horse with 1/8 mile experience. 

In his first start, a 6 furlong maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park, the Bluegrass Cat colt rated along the rail, was caught in mild traffic, but angled out into the stretch to capture third.

The next month, Teeth of the Dog had his 2012 debut -- another maiden special weight, again at Gulfstream, this time going for a full (dirt) mile. The colt showed a new dimension, battling for the lead throughout the race. In the end, he was unable to hold off a charge from Unbridled Minister. Still, Teeth of the Dog finished a game second.

They say the third time's a charm; it certainly was with Teeth of the Dog. On February 4th, the bay colt stretched out to 1 1/8 miles for the first time. Again setting the pace, Teeth of the Dog held on to win by a head. The final time was unremarkable, but some of the competition was. Went the Day Well, winner of the G3 Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes & 4th in the Kentucky Derby, finished behind Teeth of the Dog.

Coming off such a solid performance, Teeth of the Dog was shipped to Aqueduct for the G1 Wood Memorial. For a maiden, he was super impressive, ducking out of traffic to finish 3rd behind Derby starters Gemologist and Alpha. He finished courageously, the best of the rest.

It could be argued - and so I'll go ahead and say it - that Teeth of the Dog has been mediocre. He has been, and has little experience under his belt to rival that of Preakness competition. It's not certain he'll be starting in the G1 event, either -- Teeth of the Dog has been entered in the G2 Peter Pan Stakes, a race at Belmont Park. 

But if this colt does show up at Pimlico, he's got just the sort of stable record I love to find in a long money contender. He's proven at the distance of 1 1/8, has dealt with traffic and bad positioning, and seems to be improving with each start.

Although his chances may seem slim, this is a horse that seems to enjoy running and gives it his best every race. Teeth of the Dog should be closely considered in any of his future starts - Preakness included.