2012 Preakness Stakes: a Look at the Field

It seems like yesterday that I was crouched at the rail of Churchill Downs, cheering on my hopeless choices as they floundered down the homestretch.

Bodemeister was loose on the lead (or so it seemed from my crowded vantage point), and he was going to wire the field -- but wait.
Here came a muddy chestnut -- who was it? -- I rocked onto my tiptoes, squinting to see past the feathered rims of festive hats. #19, flashed the tote board.
I deflated with a shaky breath. The women around me cawing like crows ("I think I've won! I think I've won!"), I fell to my racing form with a numb stare. At odds of 15-1, I'll Have Another had won the Kentucky Derby.

For me, there ended 9 months of delicately skeptic dreaming. Union Rags had not won the Derby.. the Triple Crown was out. But is it? With the bay colt reserved for the Belmont, this Saturday's Preakness field looms large and bright and colorful. 11 colts are chiseled to perfection for the most exhilarating race of their lives. I've studied each carefully over the past few weeks (months, in some's cases), and come to conclusion about each contender. I've listed them below in order of post position.
Read my opinions, and feel free to share your own thoughts in the comments!


Shackleford, winner of the 2011 Preakness Stakes.

1)   Tiger Walk:  Fourth in both the Gotham Stakes and Wood Memorial. Doesn't seem to face up against the better competition with much success. In addition, he likes to come from off the pace -- a running style usually stomped in the Preakness, where speed horses get the nod. Shouldn't come near the winner's circle.


2)   Teeth of the Dog: Third in the Wood Memorial. Shows some early speed, which could play to his advantage; will most likely stalk the pace. Finished with energy in the Wood, but was no match for the top two (Alpha and Gemologist, who didn't fare well in the Derby). Regardless, he has shown visible improvement with each start. Coming off a nice rest, if Teeth of the Dog has gotten any better, he may hit the money - or come close - in the Preakness. For more about Teeth of the Dog, look here.


3)   Pretension: Ninth in the Illinois Derby, which was ran in the slowest time in the race's history. Won his last race, the Canonero II, which took place at Pimlico -- the one good thing on his spotty resume. I see no reason for Pretension to finish in the top half of the field.


4)   Zetterholm: A long shot that I'm fond of, Zetterholm has won his last 3 races. None of them were in deep competition, and all were at Aqueduct, but he got the job done with a last-to-first sweep. His closing style may or may not serve him well in the Preakness; the horses Zetterholm has had to catch are nothing in comparison to the speedy Bodemeister. His sire, Silver Train, never won past 1 mile, and Zetterholm has never raced past 1 mile & 70 yards. Regardless, I think that this is a colt with Preakness potential. To read more about Zetterholm, look here.


5)   Went the Day Well: Fourth in the Kentucky Derby, winner of the Spiral Stakes. Following a troubled start, he ran the last half mile of the Kentucky Derby faster than any other horse in it. The Preakness may provide him with a great opportunity to set straight his record.


6)   Creative Cause: A tough horse who has hit the board against some of the grittiest 3 year olds around. 5th in the Derby, 2nd in the San Felipe, 3rd in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile. If he gets everything sorted out, may be a monstrous force to reckon with in Saturday's Preakness. However, if the Derby has taken anything out of Creative Cause, he may not be ready to again take on the top competition. I would avoid betting on him.


7)   Bodemeister: Second in the Kentucky Derby after setting the 4th fastest early fractions in the race's history. It's nothing short of amazing that this colt held on for the place -- every other horse to set such blitzing fractions has fallen back to about 10th. He has never finished worse than second; his record reads "second, first, second, first, second (that being the Derby)", implying that it may take him one race to figure things out. My concern is that the Derby may have dulled him.. but if not, look out for a runaway win from Bodemeister.



8)   Daddy Nose Best: Coming off a bad start in the Derby that resulted in a 10th place finishing. Seems to preform better against lesser competition (El Camino Real Derby, Sunland Derby). Not a good choice in the Prealness Stakes.


9)   I'll Have Another: Got a great ride from Mario Gutierrez to steal the Kentucky Derby over a tiring Bodemeister. An excellent 3 for 3 in his 2012 career -- a colt who seems to want to win (just watch his ears as they prick up as he passes the finish). In the Derby, he posted a career-best Equibase speed figure of 108. But the shorter distance of the Preakness, it may be harder for the chestnut colt to catch a front-running Bodemeister. If he is to win the Preakness, I'll Have Another will need to be on the top of his game -- of course, a nice trip would help, as will the sharp works he has been posting at Pimlico.


10)   Optimizer: Although I'm a believer in long shots of all sorts, Optimizer gives me no reason to jump onto his boat. His best start was a second in the Rebel, after which he was 9th in the Arkansas and 11th in the Derby. No, not a chance.


11)   Cozzetti: 3rd in the Tampa Bay Derby, 4th in the Arkansas Derby. A decent horse, but only a winner of one race in 7 starts. He closes decently, but not enough to get the job done -- particularly in the Preakness. Speed will rule the day.


My Selections:


I'll Have Another


Bodemeister


Zetterholm