Bad Luck, Sometimes: My 2010 - 2012 Kentucky Derby Misfortunes

Among all fans of horse racing, it is a poorly kept secret that the Kentucky Derby, held each year on the first Saturday in May, is one of the most unpredictable races to analyze and handicap. In a colorful field of 20 colts, each brimming with untried talent, anything and everything does happen.
I have learned this through the school of hard knocks. Year after year, I have watched the Derby. Very rarely have I succeeded in selecting the most glorious, talented colt in the field. Evidence, please?
Let's take a quick peek at my pre-race selections for the last three Run for the Roses.




2010.
My Selection: Icebox.
Why? Super impressive in his Florida Derby win, and coming off very fast works. Seemed to be prepped for the greatest race of his life. I liked his closing running style.
The result? Icebox came splashing down the track late.. too late to catch rail-riding Calvin Borel aboard Super Saver. He finished second.

2011.
My Selection: Uncle Mo.
Why? His dosage index was not that of a sprinter, and the Wood Memorial was only due to illness. He had proved himself dominant over a weak crop, and always seemed to get the job done -- plus, he loved the Churchill surface. I was (and am!) a Mo fanatic.
The result? What was thought to be a gastrointestinal illness turned out to be something much, much larger -- a rare liver disease that left Uncle Mo fighting for his life. He missed the Derby, Preakness, and Belmont, making his return to the races way later in the year.

2012.

My Selection: Union Rags.

Why? The stars were all aligned with Union Rags. I'd been following him since the Saratoga Special, where he splashed down the lane to a gaping victory. He was versatile, showing a new dimension with every race. He relished the slop, closed with style, could sit near or far from the pace. With his long sweeping strides and easy way of going, I was sure this colt could gobble up the classic distance. They talked of him being a sprinter, but he certainly didn't run like one.

The result? Union Rags got one of the worst trips in recent memory, being squished back to 18th from the early stages of the race. He got jammed in traffic, freed himself, got jammed again, and then swung out wide in the foot of the stretch. He rallied to a decent close, but was far from the money. Union Rags.. 7th. 

So there you have it. My last three years have been chock full of Kentucky Derby misfortunes. Going into the Belmont, I'll be as excited as anyone to possibly witness the 12th Triple Crown winner in he history of the game. But it just won't be the same as the Kentucky Derby, where a big win can come from any horse in the field -- your horse could be the next Triple Crown king.

Maybe it'll be different in 2013. Maybe my horse will capture the roses. Who knows? That's the beauty of this sport; anything and everything will happen.

So what's your luck like? Have you been able to pick the winner of the last three Kentucky Derbys? Leave a comment, and tell me your story.