Roman's Avenue: An Impressive Maiden

As the field of five 2 year olds paraded out beneath the Twin Spires, the dark bay colt was all the hype. Roman's Avenue, from Donegal Racing, glittered with obvious potential.

Coming from the barn of trainer Dale Romans, of course the crowd would be on their toes. If his Met Mile victory is any indication, The seven-time Kentucky Trainer of the Year is on a hot streak. With a 46 percent rate of landing in the money, his stable has garnered $4.5 million in the early stages of this year. His Belmont hopeful, Dullahan, flew to victory in the G1 Blue Grass, later snatching third in the Kentucky Derby. Also on Derby day, Romans conquered the G1 Woodford Reserve Turf Classic with Little Mike.

In the pedigree, too, Roman's Avenue is sharp. A 2010 colt out of Career Fair, he is sired by the 2007 Kentucky Derby winner, Street Sense. On the track, Street Sense was sensational. To date, he is the only horse to have ever won the Breeder's Cup Juvenile and the Kentucky Derby. Among his offspring are Castaway, Motor City, Street Life and Miss Netta -- all three of which have placed in graded stakes company. A Street Sense foal has yet to win past 1 1/8 miles; however, the sire's own performance shows no reason for worry. Roman's Avenue's dam, Career Fair, is sired by the illustrious Storm Cat. When crossed with Street Sense, Storm Cat mares have made a sum of $335,189 from a total of 4 winners. 3 year old, G3 winner Castaway reigns from the same cross as Roman's Avenue.

In the end, Roman's Avenue was sent off at heavy odds of
1-5 in the maiden special weight event. The starting gate was positioned 4 1/2 furlongs from the wire on the fast, main track of Churchill Downs. Following a tidy break, Roman's Avenue shot for the lead. He set comfy fractions of 23 1/5 and 46.45 before rocketed down the lane to a 4 1/2 length victory.
"All the hype was right!" Declared the announcer.

Roman's Avenue will now be pointed toward the Sanford and Hopeful Stakes. If he continues to improve, this colt could be a huge factor in early races. His dosage profile of 3-1-6-0-0 supports ideas of going on to the classic distances; his dosage index is comfortably low at 2.33.

This colt reminds me very much of Castaway. He has the same high knee action, and powerful way of going. I'd like to see a longer stride on Roman's Avenue, and of course, an attempt that does not involve sprinting for the early lead. The horses he beat were nothing in comparison to the warriors that are yet to come, however, he did everything that was asked of him and a little bit more. His pedigree is unproven, but glossy enough for extended distances. When the pace gets hotter, later this year, Roman's Avenue may or may not be able to maintain this level of dominance. 2 year olds that begin racing in this time of the year often turn out to be overly precocious, with nothing left to give. His sire did not begin racing until early July.

But regardless, Roman's Avenue is a flashy colt. I highly recommend adding him to your Equibase, and sitting back to watch the show. It will be very interesting to see how this colt responds when the rest of the 2 year olds come out to play.

Shackleford Defies Caleb's Posse in the Met Mile

In what many will consider the race of the year, Shackleford blazed to victory in the (Grade 1) Metropolitan Handicap at Belmont Park.

The 2011 Preakness champion rocketed out of the gate to an early lead. After setting lightning fractions of 22.77 and 44.73, he glided into the stretch on an easy lead. But then came Caleb's Posse, surging heroically from last to second. A dramatic stretch duel unfolded. The bay colt fought for track, gaining with every stride. Shackleford yielded nothing; with all the mental toughness characterized by the thoroughbred breed, the chestnut 4 year old hung on by a single, vicious nose bob. The mile was covered in 1:33.30.

Not only did Shackleford display astounding drive and will to win -- in the process, he defeated one of the toughest fields the Met Mile has seen in many years. The runner-up, Caleb's Posse, had been victorious over Shackleford in the 2011 Breeder's Cup Dirt Mile. In third was To Honor and Serve, winner of the Cigar Mile and Westchester Stakes. Fourth was long shot Caixa Eletronica, winner of the million-dollar Charles Town Classic, fifth was Jackson Bend, victorious in the Grade 1 Carter Handicap, and in sixth was Saginaw, emerging from 5 straight wins, three times in stakes company.

What next for the brilliant Shackleford? Although trainer Dale Romans says he's not been thinking past the Metropolitan, you can thank the "win and you're in" program, of which the Met Mile was the first of 2012, that Shackleford has a guaranteed spot in the Breeder's Cup Dirt Mile at Santa Anita, in November.

"It was the race of the year, and it's exciting to have been part of it, win, lose, or draw, with all those good horses," Remarked a victorious Dale Romans, "And it lived up to its billing. To be a nose apart at the wire, I think it lived up to the hype."

Shackleford (blue and white silks) hangs on to capture the Met Mile.

Bad Luck, Sometimes: My 2010 - 2012 Kentucky Derby Misfortunes

Among all fans of horse racing, it is a poorly kept secret that the Kentucky Derby, held each year on the first Saturday in May, is one of the most unpredictable races to analyze and handicap. In a colorful field of 20 colts, each brimming with untried talent, anything and everything does happen.
I have learned this through the school of hard knocks. Year after year, I have watched the Derby. Very rarely have I succeeded in selecting the most glorious, talented colt in the field. Evidence, please?
Let's take a quick peek at my pre-race selections for the last three Run for the Roses.




2010.
My Selection: Icebox.
Why? Super impressive in his Florida Derby win, and coming off very fast works. Seemed to be prepped for the greatest race of his life. I liked his closing running style.
The result? Icebox came splashing down the track late.. too late to catch rail-riding Calvin Borel aboard Super Saver. He finished second.

2011.
My Selection: Uncle Mo.
Why? His dosage index was not that of a sprinter, and the Wood Memorial was only due to illness. He had proved himself dominant over a weak crop, and always seemed to get the job done -- plus, he loved the Churchill surface. I was (and am!) a Mo fanatic.
The result? What was thought to be a gastrointestinal illness turned out to be something much, much larger -- a rare liver disease that left Uncle Mo fighting for his life. He missed the Derby, Preakness, and Belmont, making his return to the races way later in the year.

2012.

My Selection: Union Rags.

Why? The stars were all aligned with Union Rags. I'd been following him since the Saratoga Special, where he splashed down the lane to a gaping victory. He was versatile, showing a new dimension with every race. He relished the slop, closed with style, could sit near or far from the pace. With his long sweeping strides and easy way of going, I was sure this colt could gobble up the classic distance. They talked of him being a sprinter, but he certainly didn't run like one.

The result? Union Rags got one of the worst trips in recent memory, being squished back to 18th from the early stages of the race. He got jammed in traffic, freed himself, got jammed again, and then swung out wide in the foot of the stretch. He rallied to a decent close, but was far from the money. Union Rags.. 7th. 

So there you have it. My last three years have been chock full of Kentucky Derby misfortunes. Going into the Belmont, I'll be as excited as anyone to possibly witness the 12th Triple Crown winner in he history of the game. But it just won't be the same as the Kentucky Derby, where a big win can come from any horse in the field -- your horse could be the next Triple Crown king.

Maybe it'll be different in 2013. Maybe my horse will capture the roses. Who knows? That's the beauty of this sport; anything and everything will happen.

So what's your luck like? Have you been able to pick the winner of the last three Kentucky Derbys? Leave a comment, and tell me your story. 

Belmont Contender: Alpha

For Alpha, a bay son of Bernardini, it has been a long, winding road to the Triple Crown.
Once touted as one of the most serious Derby contenders, Godolphin Racing's 3 year old colt has been all but lost in the rush of attention to Derby & Preakness champion I'll Have Another. Following a lackluster 12th in the Kentucky Derby, few are left on Alpha's "boat". Is he good enough to contend with the likes of this year's champions? Can he bounce back off such a dull performance? Can he get the Belmont distance? While the real answers to these questions remain up in the air, I'm going to take a moment to acknowledge the chances of this brilliant colt in the race known as the Test of the Champion.


Alpha flying home in the Withers Stakes

For Alpha, the 2 year old season began with a bang. Sent out at Saratoga in a 7 furlong maiden special weight, the son of Munnaya sat back along the rail until the five-sixteenths pole, where he kicked off and drew away to a flashy 6 length win. Among the defeated was future stakes winning Hierro, who was at one point considered for the Preakness. Also of note was Timely Tally, who later went on to place third in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes.


Next time out, Alpha took a huge leap in class to the G1 Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park. Again ridden by Alan Garcia, he loped along near the back of the pack before altering course and blasting off to secure a respectable second. Union Rags, the winner, charged between horses to a 5 length victory before going on to become one of the top colts in the nation. Although outclassed by the victor, Alpha proved himself a powerful prospect in this race. It is also to be noted that the Champagne Stakes was his only race at Belmont Park, the home track of the Belmont Stakes. Alpha took well to the track's surface.

But the Churchill surface? Not so much.
In his final race of 2011, Alpha shipped to Churchill Downs for the prestigious Breeder's Cup Juvenile, the top race in the nation for 2 year old colts. After wrecking havoc at the starting gate, the bay colt flopped home an unimposing 11th out of 13 horses.

His 3 year old year would almost bring a change in fortunes. After resting over the winter, Alpha's 3 year old debut would come in the Count Fleet Stakes, in which he cruised home victorious by 2 1/2 lengths.. fairly impressive, but with grandmother times that reeled in few to Alpha's bandwagon. But he impressed again in the G3 Withers, also over Aqueduct's inner dirt. Bumping up from 1 mile 70 yards to 1 1/6 miles, he romped by 3 lengths.

Still, the times were doubtful, and Alpha had conquered little competition. He was pointed toward the G1 Wood Memorial; the race that marked his first start among top 3 year old competition. After a troubled trip in which he was forced to race wide, Alpha fought bravely against the then-undefeated Gemologist. He came up short by a neck. After the race it was found that Alpha had suffered several scrapes throughout the course of the race -- making his runner-up finish all the more inspiring.

Several more liked Alpha, now. He had raced with the best of them, and come out with good results. Although the odds were still long for the Godolphin colt, he was backed by many experts; Alpha appeared to be sitting on a very big race. He was transported to Churchill Downs for the Kentucky Derby, ready to roll -- and what we got was a repeat of the Breeder's Cup Juvenile.

After being "awkward" at the start, Alpha failed to show potential in a flat, struggling race. Similarly to last year, he placed 12th on the Churchill dirt. My thoughts? Alpha should never run at Churchill Downs, which obviously seems to shackle his abilities. He'd do much better at Aqueduct, Saratoga and -- yes, of course -- Belmont Park.

Should Alpha contest in the Belmont Stakes (which is the plan), you've got no reason to believe that he won't romp on that same, lovely surface of his graded stakes debut. Why not? His pedigree screams distance. He's well-rested, having skipped the Preakness, and has the lowest dosage index (1.67) in the Belmont field. He may not have the flashy resume boasted by I'll Have Another, or near the fan base of Union Rags, but Alpha is still a classy horse who deserves a shot at history.

Is 2012 the Year of a Triple Crown ... Spoiler?

As the field for the Belmont Stakes gradually takes a solid form, all eyes are on the chestnut son of Flower Alley. If he wins this race, I'll Have Another will secure his place among champions such as Seattle Slew, Secretariat, Whirlaway, and Affirmed as only the 12th Triple Crown winner in the history of the sport. It has been a winding road since 1978, when Affirmed battled Alydar in three of the most grueling stretch runs ever to grace the Sport of Kings. It has been 34 years since Affirmed won the crown; many near misses have ensued.


2004 Belmont Stakes; Birdstone upsets Smarty Jones

In 2003, Funny Cide took the Derby and Preakness only to come up short in the deep mud of the Belmont Stakes, finishing third behind Empire Maker and Ten Most Wanted. Both of the top two horses had skipped the Preakness in favor of the Triple Crown's final jewel.


In 2004, Smarty Jones conquered the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, the latter by a record-smashing 11 1/2 lengths. He went on to become a huge fan favorite for the Belmont Stakes; the crowd in attendance was the largest for any New York sporting event in history. But the Triple Crown was not to be. After running the opening mile & quarter in a time that would have captured all but three Kentucky Derbies in horse racing history, Smarty Jones was upset by a tremendous rally from the 36-1 Birdstone. Birdstone, who had finished 8th in the Kentucky Derby, was coming off a 5 week rest after skipping the Preakness Stakes.


In 2008, Big Brown became the first horse since 1929 to capture the Derby from slot 20 of the starting gate. He romped by nearly 5 lengths over filly Eight Belles; his powerful performance was much overshadowed by the tragic breakdown of the runner-up. In the Preakness, he triumphed again, winning by 5 lengths over Macho Again. A week after his victory, a quarter crack was discovered in Big Brown's left front hoof; it was stitched together with steel wire, and the impressive colt resumed training. But in the 140th running of the Belmont Stakes, Big Brown shocked the world by becoming the only horse in Triple Crown history to win the Derby and Preakness only to come up last in the Belmont.

If history has anything to say about his chances, I'll Have Another should not be relied on to pull off a Belmont victory against this year's unusually deep field. Many have noted the parallels between the chestnut son of Flower Alley and the last Triple Crown winner, Affirmed. While these similarities are undeniable, so are those between Belmont contender Union Rags and Triple Crown "killer" Birdstone.

Debuts:
Both kicked off their 2 year old seasons in winning style. Birdstone romped at Saratoga, sweeping away at the first turn to win by 12 lengths. Union Rags, also making his move throughout the turn, moved past the leaders to win his debut by a solid, but less fashionable, 2 lengths.

2nd Start:
Birdstone made a huge leap from maiden special weight company to the G1 Hopeful. After a troubled break, he sat unhurried toward the back of the pack, angled 5 wide at the top of the stretch, but showed little closing kick and finished fourth. Union Rags, too, went straight from his maiden to graded company. In the G2 Saratoga Special, the son of Dixie Union followed up his troubled start with a battle for the early lead. Coming from the turn, he kicked away from the rest of the field before swerving sharply at the sixteenth pole, reportedly at the brightness of the tote board amid the rainy gloom. Union Rags was put to task by a tap of the whip, and straightened out to draw away by over 7 lengths. "Union Rags," cried the announcer, "Just a 2 year old frolicking in the mud!"

Champagne Stakes: 
Both Birdstone and Union Rags went on to win the Champagne Stakes. Union Rags was caught in traffic coming into the stretch, but displayed a remarkable mentality and turn of foot by splitting rivals and dashing away to take the prize by 5 lengths. Coming off a much clear trip, Birdstone conquered the same race by 2 1/4 lengths in a much-slower time of 1:44 (Union Rags won it by 1:35).

The Kentucky Derby:
Birdstone ran two races coming up to the Derby - an allowance (1st) and the Lanes End Stakes (5th). Union Rags ran three - the Breeder's Cup Juvenile (2nd), the Fountain of Youth (1st), and the Florida Derby  (3rd). In the Derby itself, Birdstone and Union Rags were both pinched at the start. But while Birdstone worked his way up at the half mile pole, and raced well within striking distance with no response (he finished 8th), Union Rags was shoved back to 18th place for the majority of the race. At the far turn he made up ground, and rallied up for a fast closing 7th.

The Preakness: 
Both Birdstone and Union Rags skipped the Preakness in order to be better rested for the Belmont Stakes. In 2004, Smarty Jones won both the Derby and the Preakness. In 2012, I'll Have Another won both the Derby and the Preakness.

Dosage Index:
A horse's dosage index is said to determine how well he handles extra distance. Although this is not the ultimate test of a horse's stamina, the lower is better for routing. Birdstone's dosage index of 1.77 was much lower than Derby and Preakness winner Smarty Jone's dosage index of 3.40. Union Rag's dosage index of 2.14 is slightly higher than I'll Have Another's dosage index of 2.11.

The Belmont Stakes:
For Birdstone, the Belmont Stakes played out like a fairy tale. Coming into the stretch, he bore down on a tiring Smarty Jones to lead the final furlong in the fastest recorded since the initiation of electronic timing in 2002. At a highly overlooked 36-1, Birdstone stole the Triple Crown.
As for Union Rags? Come June 9th, we'll see.

Union Rags romps in the Fountain of Youth.

2012 Preakness Stakes: Result Analysis

In the final stretch of the Preakness Stakes, it was a two horse race.
Kentucky Derby winner I'll Have Another charged down the lane to match strides with Derby runner-up Bodemeister. They drew away from the rest of the field by a visually stunning 9 lengths, fully extended, snatching for ground. Bodemeister held on gamely -- but the muddy chestnut wanted another.
Gritty as they get, he stuck his nose in front.

"We're thinking Triple Crown, baby," Declared trainer Doug O'Neill. "He's a special horse. We'll see how he comes out of it, and if he comes out of it in good shape, we're heading to New York, baby."

For I'll Have Another, this is brilliant news. But what about the rest of the field? What happened to the highly touted Went the Day Well? The California colt, Creative Cause? My long shot selections, Zetterholm and Teeth of the Dog? In the spirit of curiosity, and a love of horse racing, here're the full results of the 2012 Preakness Stakes -- as well as my thoughts on each horse's performance.


I'll Have Another (left), Bodemeister (right)

1)   I'll Have Another: Another great ride from Mario Gutierrez, and another great show from one gritty, talented colt. Before the race, I remarked that I'll Have Another enjoys winning.. and I'm firmer than ever with that belief. This long-strided colt never knows when to stop running. He's versatile, being the only horse in history to have won the Derby from post #19, and only the fourth to have won the Preakness from #9. He makes his own good luck -- and wow. The triple crown seems a lot more possible than it did a mere two hours ago.


2)   Bodemeister: Victorious in defeat, Bodemeister ran a huge race. Again, he ran on the lead, although this time under much slower fractions than the Derby. Had it not been for I'll Have Another, Bodemeister would have been a 9 length winner. My hat is off to this horse for the sheer determination he shows in every start. I expected him to be at least slightly dulled by the grueling races he's ran in quick succession. But Bodemeister seemed unfazed by this quick turnaround, and ran the race of a real champion.


3)   Creative Cause: Another hard-trying colt who ran a big one. Did everything right for the most of the race, but faded out in the final furlong, and simply wasn't sharp enough to keep up with the top two. I think this is a great colt in desperate need of some time off. After all the traveling he's been through, Creative Cause may have been feeling just a little jet-lagged. Look out for him in the major stakes races later in the year.


4)   Zetterholm: One of my top three selections going into the race, the relatively untested son of Silver Train ran well past the betting public's expectations. He rated near the back until the foot of the stretch, where he angled out four wide with no major kick.. but enough to secure a respectable fourth. It is to be noted that his sire, Silver Train, never won past 1 mile. Zetterholm, too, may show more closing ability at shorter distances. Still, a great effort for such a green horse.


5)   Teeth of the Dog: Another one of my top selections. Although way far back from the rest of the field, Teeth of the Dog broke first, then settled back into midpack with no major rallies. Clearly not a top tier horse (on this particular day, it could be added), but still one to watch for. A colt with plenty of room left for maturing.


6)   Optimizer: Lacked speed, then passed tiring rivals. This field was far too deep for him.


7)   Cozzetti: Looked like he might be progressing at first, but deflated pretty quickly. Not up to par with this field.


8)   Tiger Walk: Was gaining ground in the far turn, but flattened out. Didn't belong in this race.


9)   Daddy Nose Best: Plenty of people were looking for a big race from the Sunland Derby winner, but instead, they got an altered version of the Kentucky Derby finish. May need a break, or simply a regrouping with some less imposing horses. Looked pretty tired today.


10)   Went the Day Well: Bounced off of a huge effort in the Kentucky Derby, in which he was closing fastest of them all. He was a different horse at Churchill; this is a classy animal in need of a breather.


11)   Pretension: "I see no reason for Pretension to finish in the top half of the field" Those were my words in my last blog post, in which I analyzed the Preakness field. This was a replay of the Illinois Derby, in which he ran a lackluster ninth. Despite his accomplishment on the Pimlico dirt, Pretension was no ready for this race.



How did I do?
Coming into the Preakness, my selections were:

I'll Have Another (1st)


Bodemeister (2nd)


Zetterholm (4th)

And I wrote an article on Teeth of the Dog, who finished 5th.

2012 Preakness Stakes: a Look at the Field

It seems like yesterday that I was crouched at the rail of Churchill Downs, cheering on my hopeless choices as they floundered down the homestretch.

Bodemeister was loose on the lead (or so it seemed from my crowded vantage point), and he was going to wire the field -- but wait.
Here came a muddy chestnut -- who was it? -- I rocked onto my tiptoes, squinting to see past the feathered rims of festive hats. #19, flashed the tote board.
I deflated with a shaky breath. The women around me cawing like crows ("I think I've won! I think I've won!"), I fell to my racing form with a numb stare. At odds of 15-1, I'll Have Another had won the Kentucky Derby.

For me, there ended 9 months of delicately skeptic dreaming. Union Rags had not won the Derby.. the Triple Crown was out. But is it? With the bay colt reserved for the Belmont, this Saturday's Preakness field looms large and bright and colorful. 11 colts are chiseled to perfection for the most exhilarating race of their lives. I've studied each carefully over the past few weeks (months, in some's cases), and come to conclusion about each contender. I've listed them below in order of post position.
Read my opinions, and feel free to share your own thoughts in the comments!


Shackleford, winner of the 2011 Preakness Stakes.

1)   Tiger Walk:  Fourth in both the Gotham Stakes and Wood Memorial. Doesn't seem to face up against the better competition with much success. In addition, he likes to come from off the pace -- a running style usually stomped in the Preakness, where speed horses get the nod. Shouldn't come near the winner's circle.


2)   Teeth of the Dog: Third in the Wood Memorial. Shows some early speed, which could play to his advantage; will most likely stalk the pace. Finished with energy in the Wood, but was no match for the top two (Alpha and Gemologist, who didn't fare well in the Derby). Regardless, he has shown visible improvement with each start. Coming off a nice rest, if Teeth of the Dog has gotten any better, he may hit the money - or come close - in the Preakness. For more about Teeth of the Dog, look here.


3)   Pretension: Ninth in the Illinois Derby, which was ran in the slowest time in the race's history. Won his last race, the Canonero II, which took place at Pimlico -- the one good thing on his spotty resume. I see no reason for Pretension to finish in the top half of the field.


4)   Zetterholm: A long shot that I'm fond of, Zetterholm has won his last 3 races. None of them were in deep competition, and all were at Aqueduct, but he got the job done with a last-to-first sweep. His closing style may or may not serve him well in the Preakness; the horses Zetterholm has had to catch are nothing in comparison to the speedy Bodemeister. His sire, Silver Train, never won past 1 mile, and Zetterholm has never raced past 1 mile & 70 yards. Regardless, I think that this is a colt with Preakness potential. To read more about Zetterholm, look here.


5)   Went the Day Well: Fourth in the Kentucky Derby, winner of the Spiral Stakes. Following a troubled start, he ran the last half mile of the Kentucky Derby faster than any other horse in it. The Preakness may provide him with a great opportunity to set straight his record.


6)   Creative Cause: A tough horse who has hit the board against some of the grittiest 3 year olds around. 5th in the Derby, 2nd in the San Felipe, 3rd in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile. If he gets everything sorted out, may be a monstrous force to reckon with in Saturday's Preakness. However, if the Derby has taken anything out of Creative Cause, he may not be ready to again take on the top competition. I would avoid betting on him.


7)   Bodemeister: Second in the Kentucky Derby after setting the 4th fastest early fractions in the race's history. It's nothing short of amazing that this colt held on for the place -- every other horse to set such blitzing fractions has fallen back to about 10th. He has never finished worse than second; his record reads "second, first, second, first, second (that being the Derby)", implying that it may take him one race to figure things out. My concern is that the Derby may have dulled him.. but if not, look out for a runaway win from Bodemeister.



8)   Daddy Nose Best: Coming off a bad start in the Derby that resulted in a 10th place finishing. Seems to preform better against lesser competition (El Camino Real Derby, Sunland Derby). Not a good choice in the Prealness Stakes.


9)   I'll Have Another: Got a great ride from Mario Gutierrez to steal the Kentucky Derby over a tiring Bodemeister. An excellent 3 for 3 in his 2012 career -- a colt who seems to want to win (just watch his ears as they prick up as he passes the finish). In the Derby, he posted a career-best Equibase speed figure of 108. But the shorter distance of the Preakness, it may be harder for the chestnut colt to catch a front-running Bodemeister. If he is to win the Preakness, I'll Have Another will need to be on the top of his game -- of course, a nice trip would help, as will the sharp works he has been posting at Pimlico.


10)   Optimizer: Although I'm a believer in long shots of all sorts, Optimizer gives me no reason to jump onto his boat. His best start was a second in the Rebel, after which he was 9th in the Arkansas and 11th in the Derby. No, not a chance.


11)   Cozzetti: 3rd in the Tampa Bay Derby, 4th in the Arkansas Derby. A decent horse, but only a winner of one race in 7 starts. He closes decently, but not enough to get the job done -- particularly in the Preakness. Speed will rule the day.


My Selections:


I'll Have Another


Bodemeister


Zetterholm

Preakness Contender: Zetterholm

Despite having never raced past 1 mile & 70 yards, Zetterholm will be making his graded stakes debut in the 137th running of the Preakness Stakes.

The bay colt, a son of the stakes-winning Silver Train, is trained by Richard Dutrow Jr. and owned by Winter Park Partners. Zetterholm began his career last November with trainer Stephen DeMauro, in a maiden special weight (6 1/2 furlongs) at Calder Race Course. He came home a lackluster 11th.
The colt was switched to the barn of Rick Dutrow Jr. and moved to Aqueduct for his first start of 2012.
He galloped home second in the one mile event, beaten by seven lengths -- his last loss to date.

The colt broke his maiden next time out, this time going 1 mile & 70 yards over Aqueduct's inner dirt. His next win came in an allowance at the same distance. Zetterholm trailed the field until the turn, where he made an amazing rally to prevail by a half length over stakes-placed Coalition. The final time was 1:42 on a track rated as fast.

The Dutrow trainee took a jump in class in his next start, the Patsyprospect Stakes. Again coming from far behind, he easily put away the small field by 2 1/4 lengths under a mild hand ride. Among the defeated were Sportswriter and Coalition, both placed in blacktype events. The mile-long race was clocked at 1:37 and change.

The Preakness may prove a huge challenge for such a lightly raced colt. Although the winner of 3 consecutive races, Zetterholm has yet to face real competition. The ease in which he won the Patsyprospect was certainly inspiring -- but is to be noted that his sire, Silver Train, never won past 1 mile. The added distance of the Preakness Stakes coupled with the top tier horses may be enough to see Zetterholm come home off the board.

Still, this colt is to be taken note of for future races. He has shown to have a powerful late kick; his running style may entice the longer distances in spite of his sprinters' pedigree.
Although I have my doubts about this Holy Wish colt, Zetterholm may yet prove me wrong.



Zetterholm winning with his ears pricked; a sign of energy and lack of fatigue.

Preakness Contender: Teeth of the Dog

As the dust settles from the 138th rendition of America's most startling race, all eyes are on the big names.

Can I'll Have Another win the Triple Crown? Will the 1 1/8 mile Preakness set up to serve the speedy Bodemeister? Is it still possible for Union Rags to triumph in the Belmont? 

Brilliant questions for brilliant horses -- but don't declare it a fight of favorites. Several long shots will slip to the Preakness as deftly and quietly as maiden claimers; one may emerge in a swarm of cameras. 

To prevent being among those yelping "who was that?", let's take a closer look at one of the more jaded contenders.

Trained by Micheal Matz, owned by J.W. Singer, LLC, Teeth of the Dog is the perfect instance of an under-the-radar long shot. 

So far as most are concerned, Micheal Matz has one good horse -- his name? Union Rags, runner-up in the Juvenile, third in the Florida Derby, seventh in the Kentucky Derby.

As everyone knows, Union rags will not be running in the Preakness Stakes; but don't count out Matz for a sudden score.

Although his resume is far from flashy, Teeth of the Dog is a solid horse with 1/8 mile experience. 

In his first start, a 6 furlong maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park, the Bluegrass Cat colt rated along the rail, was caught in mild traffic, but angled out into the stretch to capture third.

The next month, Teeth of the Dog had his 2012 debut -- another maiden special weight, again at Gulfstream, this time going for a full (dirt) mile. The colt showed a new dimension, battling for the lead throughout the race. In the end, he was unable to hold off a charge from Unbridled Minister. Still, Teeth of the Dog finished a game second.

They say the third time's a charm; it certainly was with Teeth of the Dog. On February 4th, the bay colt stretched out to 1 1/8 miles for the first time. Again setting the pace, Teeth of the Dog held on to win by a head. The final time was unremarkable, but some of the competition was. Went the Day Well, winner of the G3 Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes & 4th in the Kentucky Derby, finished behind Teeth of the Dog.

Coming off such a solid performance, Teeth of the Dog was shipped to Aqueduct for the G1 Wood Memorial. For a maiden, he was super impressive, ducking out of traffic to finish 3rd behind Derby starters Gemologist and Alpha. He finished courageously, the best of the rest.

It could be argued - and so I'll go ahead and say it - that Teeth of the Dog has been mediocre. He has been, and has little experience under his belt to rival that of Preakness competition. It's not certain he'll be starting in the G1 event, either -- Teeth of the Dog has been entered in the G2 Peter Pan Stakes, a race at Belmont Park. 

But if this colt does show up at Pimlico, he's got just the sort of stable record I love to find in a long money contender. He's proven at the distance of 1 1/8, has dealt with traffic and bad positioning, and seems to be improving with each start.

Although his chances may seem slim, this is a horse that seems to enjoy running and gives it his best every race. Teeth of the Dog should be closely considered in any of his future starts - Preakness included.