Saturday Recap (2-29-12)

Yet another amazing Saturday has been spent in the study of elite, Thoroughbred athletes. I wish I could say "company", but unfortunately, I have been unable to attend any of the summer or fall -time stakes. Like last weekend (and the weekend before..), the majority of my selections have fallen upon hard luck. Some, however, have managed to reconfirm my beliefs in them!

Executiveprivilege: the leader of my Top 10 Juvenile Fillies watch.

Beldame Stakes (GI): Royal Delta is a freak. While I expected she'd win today, I certainly didn't envision a 9 length defacing of Grade I winner It's Tricky! To go to the Ladies Classic or the Classic? Now that is the question. Personally, as much as I'd like to see her bump heads with My Miss Aurelia and Questing, the $3 million Classic seems to be shaping into a weaker field -- and how cool would it be for another filly to be Horse of the Year?

Vosburgh Invitational Stakes (GI): While my selection (and one of my favorite racehorses), Caixa Eletronica, was unable to catch high-flying The Lumber Guy, he was oh-so-game in defeat. Down the stretch, CE closed like a Ferrari versus pack mules, but just didn't find enough ground to get there in time. Never the less, my love for this seven-year-old stallion was more than quadrupled! He is just that gutsy of a racehorse -- indeed, this was start number 58 for him.

Kelso Handicap (GII): Like many, I was hoping for a Shack Attack in this race. Much to my dismay, the chestnut Shackleford was passed up in the stretch by Jersey Town, who hadn't won since the November of 2011 (in the Cigar Mile, nonetheless)! We'll likely be seeing much of this field rematch in the BC Dirt Mile. As muddled as this lot is, who knows what'll become of the race?

Jockey Club Gold Cup (GI): Flat Out must really love Belmont Park! Today he remained a perfect 3-for-3 on the track, winning his second Jockey Club Gold Cup in a row. While he's terribly inconsistent elsewhere, Flat Out is a Belmont-running machine; I'm disgusted at myself for not including him in my trifecta! My brave little Stay Thirsty, however, did the Repole folk proud with his wire-to-almost-wire running! For a minute, it looked like he might actually win it.

Front Runner Stakes (GI): In the kick-off of the Derby Point System, Power Broker broke his maiden and romped home in front of favored Know More by six, astonishing lengths! Although I didn't handicap this race, I can guarantee that I would not have included him in any of my selections. While I'd rather not judge him until he proves his consistency, this horse looks like one to watch!

 Chandelier Stakes (GI): Like Power Broker, Executiveprivilege dominated her division by six lengths. The fellow Baffert trainee was much unlike her colt counterpart, however, in that she was sent off as the heavily backed favorite. As you may know, EP is currently the leader of the my Top 10 Juvenile Filly standings. Although the final time wasn't earth-shattering, she certainly looked good for a 2YO filly going first-time at 1 1/16 on the dirt!


And those are the six most memorable races that I chose to watch on one especially rainy, Saturday afternoon. Tomorrow, keep your eye on both the Matron and Futurity!

Pennsylvania Derby 2012: Field Overview

Following an edge-of-your-seat finish in the Travers Stakes (G1) that resulted in a dead heat between favored Alpha and long shot Golden Ticket, the Pennsylvania Derby (G2) has been the recipient of much hype and enthusiasm. This Saturday, the closely matched twosome will be battling it out at Parx Racing for a highly-anticipated round II. Like thousands of race fans, I am looked forward to watching this race, and hopefully seeing the two colts' neck-and-neck abilities develop into a full-scale rivalry.

In hopes of shedding some light on the pack lined up for tomorrow's Penn Derby, I have compiled a list of the horses in contention. Here you will find a brief snapshot of each runner's career, and my opinions on their chances of posing in the winner's circle.

To Honor and Serve sets a new track record in the 2011 Penn Derby

(1) Stephanoatsee: One of the longer prices in the field, Stephanoatsee enters the Penn Derby off of a one-length triumph in an 8 furlong allowance optional claiming at Delaware Park over a slightly wet track. In a prior effort, he finished second to Alpha in the Count Fleet Stakes. Although this is a solid horse on the improve, Stephanoatsee has never raced at Parx, and never won a stakes event. While he may be a good long shot play, I see no huge indication that Stephanoatsee is ready to conquer the Travers winner(s).

(2) Casual Trick: In his most recent start, Casual trick captured a one-mile Parx allowance race over Preakness contender Tiger Walk. His second-to-last start also occurred at Parx Racing; it, too, an allowance event that he won with ease. Earlier in the year, Casual Trick finished a close second to Reveron in the Gulfstream Park Derby; he also participated in the Wood Memorial (G1), but was pulled up into the stretch due to a continuation of the breathing problems that have plagued him throughout his career. While he'll need to make a huge step up in class to lasso this race, I believe that Casual Trick has good odds of doing so. Perhaps if he's finally overcome the problems with flipping his palate, Casual Trick can advance onto the Breeders' Cup scene.

(3) Handsome Mike: Sent off at the co-longest morning line in the field (20-1), Handsome Mike has only a (turf) maiden victory at Santa Anita to stand to his credit. In all of his last three races (G1 Secretariat Stakes, G1 Haskell, G3 Spiral Stakes), this Doug O'Neill trainee has consistently managed to come home fourth. If this colt triumphs in the Penn Derby, I will be completely and genuinely startled.

(4) Alpha: Winner of both the Jim Dandy (G2) and Travers (G1), and never worse than second in all but two starts at Churchill Downs(the Kentucky Derby and BC Juvenile), Alpha is favored for several good reasons. He has never raced at Parx Racing, but is coming off two bullet works at Greentree Training Center. True, there is no value to be made off this horse alone. Regardless, expect him to be making lots of noise coming down the stretch -- and very possibly, winning.

(5) Junebugred: Like Handsome Mile, Junebugred has been documented at a hefty morning-line of 20-1. A ridgling with 6 starts under his belt, this three-year-old is emerging from a fourth-place finishing in a very sloppy Smarty Jones Stakes (G3). His only victories come from an MSW at Aqueduct, and in Oaklawn's version of the Smarty Jones Stakes. Unless I'm missing something from this horse's works (he is coming out of a near-bullet 5 furlongs), he doesn't look to be too serious of a contender.

(6) Golden Ticket: Co-winner of the Travers Stakes (G1), and in the money in 7 of his 10 lifetime starts. Although his two wins have been strung out over a period of time, Golden Ticket is an always-trying sort of horse. Be looking for Golden Ticket to grab a piece of the big paycheck, in one way or another.

(7) Csaba: In his last start, Csaba struggled with the turf in the Equalize Stakes. Before that, however, he finished second in the 9 furlong National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame Stakes (G2), and won the El Kaiser Stakes by over 8 lengths. This is a gritty horse who, like Golden Ticket, always seems to dig in. At 5-1, he may be well worth the play!

(8) Macho Macho: Winner of the 9 furlong West Virginia Derby (G2) and second to My Adonis in the Long Branch Stakes, Macho Macho is another great play in the Pennsylvania Derby who may be overshadowed by the presence of Alpha. Coming off of a win over the same conditions (minus the track) as tomorrow's race, I could easily envision Macho Macho stealing the G1 winners' crown!


My Top 3
Alpha
Macho Macho
Golden Ticket

Long Shot Selection
Casual Trick

Top 10 Juvenile Colts (Edition #3)

Much has changed since my last snapshot of the top 10 competitors in the juvenile colts division. Several of my featured two-year-olds have recently recorded a race; some of them impressed me greatly, while others demanded I bump them to a lower tier of the list. As quoted from the series's first publication: "the list is based on not only potential, but the horse's current achievements."

Approach my standings with a open mind, and understand that horses removed from the chart can - and will - resurface. One of the greatest things about the juvenile division is the hope shared amongst all race fans; any one of these runners could end up our next classic-winning champion!

Uncle Mo winning the '10 Breeders' Cup Juvenile with ease.

(1) Spurious Precision: Still much my favorite of the two-year-old colts, Spurious Precision is not due to race until the Champagne Stakes (G1) in early October. Like Belmont winner Union Rags, Spurious Precision found easy triumph in this year's Saratoga Special, hoisting the silks of Klaravich Stables through brutal early fractions of 21.35, 44, and 1:09.62, and drawing off in the final yards to win in a time of 1:16.53, by a 5 length margin. There's no denying the precocious brilliance vested in this Rick Violette trainee. Some doubt his ability to stretch out past the sprinting divisions; while I can certainly see where they're coming from, I think he has fairly good odds of making it until at least 1 1/8 miles. Spurious Precision's sire is High Cotton, who never landed in the winner's circle past 1 1/16 miles. His grandsire is Dixie Union, who recently defied his reputation as a sire of sprinters with his son Union Rag's Belmont score. Dixie Union is sired by Dixieland Band, who is the damsire of Kentucky Derby winners Monarchos and Street Sense. High Cotton's dam is Happy Tune, who is sired by the great routing sire / Belmont + BC Classic winner, A.P. Indy. A.P. Indy is sired by Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew. Spurious Precision's dam, Scarlet Combo, is sired by Scarlet Ibis: a little-known sire who mostly produced sprinters such as Wild Wings, her daughter White Ibis, and Ruby Rubles. Scarlet Ibis was sired by Cormorant, who finished fourth in the Preakness and won the one and one-sixteenth mile Jersey Derby and Gotham Stakes. Spurious Precision's granddam is Don't Combo, who was sired by Right Combination, who traces back to Round Table and Princequillo. If you still believe in dosage indexes, good for you! Spurious Precision's dosage of 1.55 is almost ideal.

(2) Uncaptured: Now a perfect 4 for 4 following a recent victory in the Swynford Stakes, Uncaptured certainly seems a force to be reckoned with. Although I'd like to see him race somewhere other than Woodbine, it cannot be said that Uncaptured has not dealt with powerful foes. In his second start, he defeated near-track-record-setter Jocosity by a whopping 5 lengths; an act that may be but a pale telling of the success yet to come. His grandsire is Tale of the Cat, who was sired by Storm Cat. Lion Heart's dam, Satin Sunrise, raced an astounding 78 times. Uncaptured's broodmare sire is Arch, winner of the 10 furlong Super Derby and sire of Blame, Arravale, and Hymn Book; he is also the broodmare sire of I'll Have Another and Uncle Mo. Uncaptured's granddam is Andrea Ruckus, whose sire, Bold Ruckus, is sired by Boldnesian, Seattle Slew's grandsire. While there's a lot of sprinting power in Uncaptured's pedigree, there's stamina, too: he should be able to stretch his limbs for a good many more furlongs.

(3) Maybe So: In both of his two races -- a maiden special weight and the Mountaineer Juvenile Stakes -- this brown colt has emerged with a perfect record still intact. Whether it was in his pace-setting first performance, or his mad rally down the Mountaineer stretch, Maybe So has consistently impressed upon me his potential for greatness. His sire, More Than Ready, won the Sanford Stakes, placed fourth in the Kentucky Derby, and won the GI King's Bishop. He has sired three BC winners: Pluck (Juvenile Turf), Regally Ready (Turf Sprint), and More Than Real (Juvenile Fillies' Turf). Maybe So's grandsire is Southern Halo, the most successful sire in Argentine history: among his 167 stakes winners is Edenwold, who won the Queen's Plate. More Than Ready's dam is Woodman's Girl, who was sired by Woodman; the sire of Belmont + Preakness winner Hansel, BC Juvenile + Preakness winner Timber Country, One Thousand Guineas winner Bosra Sham, and Queen's Plate winner Woodcarver. Woodman traces back to the Nearco line on both his paternal and maternal sides. Maybe So's damsire, Grand Slam, won the 1 1/8 mile Peter Pan Stakes, and sired graded stakes victor Limehouse and BC Sprint winner Cajun. He is sired by Gone West. Maybe So's granddam is stakes placed Pine for Me, who is sired by Preakness winner Pine Bluff. Maybe So's pedigree suggests that stretching out in distance should be little of a problem -- I look forward to watching him run, and hopefully bump up further in my personal rankings.

(4) Know More: Although he is no longer undefeated after a second-place finish in the Del Mar Futurity (G2), I remain confident in Know More's ability to thrive off added ground. Know More is sired by Lion Heart, a stallion best known for finishing second to Smarty Jones in the 2004 Kentucky Derby. His grandsire is Tale of the Cat, the sire of Gio Ponti, Take of Ekati, Spellbinder, and Catboat. Tale of the Cat is sired by Storm Cat, whom is widely known for producing distance champions such as Bluegrass Cat, Courageous Cat, and Tabasco Cat. Lion Heart's dam, Satin Sunrise, raced 78 times in the claiming ranks, winning at distances of up to 1 1/8 miles. Know More's damsire is the great Seattle Slew. In addition to winning the Triple Crown, Seattle Slew is known for siring Grade 1 winners such as A.P. Indy, Landaluce and Slew O' Gold. He is the grandsire of Rags to Riches, Bernardini, and Lava Man, and the broodmare sire of Cigar. One of Seattle Slew's sons, Slewacide, served as broodmare sire to dual classic champ Funny Cide. Know More's granddam is Qui Bid, who was sired by Derby and Preakness winner Spectacular Bid. Don't be shied away by his recent runner-up; Know More has real potential for making a splash in the longer-distanced races.
(To read more about Know More, read my article about him)


(5) Jocosity: While victorious in only one of his three starts, I believe that Jocosity has as much of a right to this list as any of the undefeated, one-race wonders. Not only in his seven length, five and one-half furlong score -- nearly track-record breaking in a zippy time of 1:02.85 -- has Jocosity displayed his brilliance; this colt's bloodline is festooned with stamina. His sire, Sharp Humor, finished second to Barbaro in the Florida Derby prior to fading to 18th in the Kentucky Derby. Sharp Humor is sired by Distorted Humor, who has made his name known internationally as the sire of champions Funny Cide, Commentator, and Drosselmeyer; recently, Distorted Humor served as the grandsire to Triple Crown star I'll Have Another. Sharp Humor's dam is Bellona, whose sire, Hansel, won both the Preakness and the Belmont. Hansel's sire, Woodman, is also the sire of Timber Country, Bosra Sham, and Woodcarver. Jocosity's broodmare sire, Stormy Atlantic, is sired by the ever-popular Storm Cat. His dam, Hail Atlantis, was sired by Seattle Slew. Jocosity's damsire is Carson City Sham, whose sire - Carson City - served as the broodmare sire for the late, great Barbaro and recently retired Havre de Grace. Carson City Sham's dam, Sham Say, was a Grade I winning mare who traces back to Secretariat's greatest rival (and one of my favorite racehorses), Sham. Although it's unlikely that Jocosity will add his name to the elite list of those found in his ancestry, a future among the classic-distance races is very real possibility.

(6) Fredericksburg: A horse who should be receiving much more attention than he is; following a green first performance in which he finished fourth, Fredericksburg easily conquered a 1 1/16 mile MSW over the Saratoga turf course. Trained by Michael Matz, who is known for conditioning slow developers, Fredericksburg shows promise not only in having covered distance this early in his career, but in his pedigree as well. His sire, Speightstown, was a 6-7 furlong horse who won the BC Sprint; while he is mostly known as a sire of sprinters, Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Haynesfield stands among his most accomplished offspring. Speightstown's sire is Gone West: the sire of Belmont winner Commendable, grandsire of Smarty Jones, and damsire of Union Rags. Speightstown's dam is Silken Cat, who won at 1 1/16 miles in one of her four starts. Silken Cat is sired by Storm Cat, who sired dozen of Grade 1 winners throughout his stud career, among which are routers Courageous Cat, Tabasco Cat, and Bluegrass Cat. Fredericksburg's dam is Choreograph, who also won at 1 1/16 miles on the turf. His broodmare sire is the late Dynaformer; a sire considered by many to be one of the most reliable branches of stamina in the business. Among others Dynaformer sired Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro, Melbourne Cup winner Americain, St. Leger winner Lucarno, and Breeders' Cup Grand National winner McDynamo. Dynaformer himself is sired by Epsom Derby winner Roberto. Fredericksburg's broodmare sire is Dance for Vanny. With a pedigree like this - teeming with stamina - Fredericksburg has only to prove that he's speedy enough (and dirt-efficient) to keep up with the rest of this crop. If so, I have great faith in his abilities to fly down the stretch and topple the favorites.

(7) Micromanage: Yet another Repole/Pletcher colt to hit it big-time onto the juvenile scene, Micromanage won brilliantly in his only race -- a 7 furlong MSW that he nabbed by five-lengths. While undeniably speedy, Micromanage's bloodlines (Medaglia d'Oro x Catnip) harbor several good reasons that he might hit the spotlights in next year's classic races.

(8) Java's War: After finishing fifth in his debut, Java's War conquered both a one-mile turf MSW and the Sunday Silence Stakes -- in which he rallied late to topple Brown Almighty, the heavily-backed favorite. Although this colt has never raced off of the turf, I believe he has a very bright future in whatever surface or distance he chooses to purse. His sire is War Pass, who won the BC Juvenile (G1) and finished second in the Wood Memorial (G1). War Pass was sired by Cherokee Run, who won the Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1), the 1 1/8 mile Dwyer Stakes (G2), and finished second by half a length in the Preakness Stakes. Java's War's dam is Java, who won up to 10 furlongs on the turf. His second dam is Island Jamboree, who was a stakes winner at 1 mile; her sire was Explodent, who was sired by the great router Nearctic.

(9) Arch Warrior: Even before he broke his maiden by a romping three-lengths, Arch Warrior was surrounded by a hype worth of a horse who'd already won the 2-Year-Old Championships. Scores of race fans have Arch Warrior labeled as either their Derby horse or their top two-year-old -- and only after a 6 furlong triumph clocked in a time of 1:10. While I refuse to buy in to the extent of the gossip until this colt has proven himself against more seasoned competition, I can't deny him a spot on the lower tiers of my Top 10 list. However over-fantasized this Pletcher trainee may have become, he is still a talented colt with a promising heritage. I won't go into depth about Archwarrior's pedigree, but in brief: his dosage profile of 6-3-18-3-0 is only a foretelling of the multiple distance strains nested in the branches of his Arch - Winner's Edge family tree.

(10) Onetwentyeight: Although Onetwentyeight failed to triumph in his most recent outing - the Sanford Stakes - I still harbor firm beliefs in this colt's ability to survive the long distances, and ultimately, shine. In the Sanford, he rallied valiantly into the stretch, and while it was only enough to secure himself third, Onetwentyeight proceeded to gallop out in front of his rivals. His sire is Discreet Cat, who suffered a throat abscess in his only distance attempt. Discreet Cat is sired by Forestry, who sired the 2011 Preakness winner, Shackleford. Discreet Cat's dam, Pretty Discreet, found victory in the 10 furlong Alabama Stakes; her sire, Private Account, won the Jim Dandy Stakes. Onetwentyeight's dam is Box of Joy, an unraced mare sired by the great Concerto, who triumphed at distances of up to 10 furlongs. Concerto's sire is Chief's Crown, who won the Travers Stakes and finished in the money in all three of the Triple Crown races. Make no mistake about it -- Onetwentyeight is bred for distance. As the ground increases, expect his abilities to follow suit.



Honorable Mentions

Shanghai Bobby: Undefeated and having just emerged from a fantastic triumph in the Hopeful Stakes, Shanghai Bobby has landed himself on the top of all handicappers' radar. Headed toward the Champagne Stakes, and possibly the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, there is much to look forward to from this powerful son of Harlan's Holiday. Although certainly wowed by all three of his performances, I do not place Shanghai Bobby on my Top 10 list because of the distance limitations in his pedigree.

Bern Identity: Once residing on the top of my list, Bern Identity has been bumped into the honorable mentions following a dull, third-place effort in the Hopeful Stakes. Although I believe there may be more distance than speed in his pedigree, there is no excusing how Bern Identity lacked response when called upon into the stretch of the 7 furlong affair. I have not given up on this colt, however, and highly anticipate his next start.

Brown Almighty: Like Bern Identity, Brown Almighty was recently placed on the top rungs of my list. I have removed him following a narrow loss to Java's War in the ungraded Sunday Silence Stakes. While I have by no means given up on this colt, he was given a cozy trip against an ungraded field, yet seemed to fold toward the end. I do realize, however, that he was ushered to the lead much sooner than his connections would have liked; perhaps in his next start he can redeem his lost ranking with a better trip and, of course, a win (this time against graded stakes competition, I hope!)

Triple Cross: A hard-trying gelding I wrote about in one of my last blog posts. Though he has never found victory in a stakes event, Triple Cross has never finished out of the money in his five races. I envision him as more of a miler than an upper-distance type; regardless, he has a hopeful future in many of the middle-distance stakes events.

Top 10 Juvenile Fillies (Edition #1)

With the autumn equinox only a week away, the time has come to start picking my top choices for the juvenile fillies' divisions of this year's Breeders' Cup. This marks the first post featuring my top 10 two-year-old fillies. Expect several more of these lists, each one quite different from those before it; the juvenile fillies have a bit of a reputation as being too slippery to handicap.

My Miss Aurelia takes the 2011 BC Juvenile Fillies

(1) Executiveprivilege: Considered almost unanimously to be the top two-year-old filly, Executiveprivilege has scored four victories from just as many starts. Most recently, she became a Grade I winner by conquering the Del Mar Debutante Stakes. For the most part, Executiveprivilege's pedigree suggests that added ground should not pose much of a threat. Her sire, First Samurai, won the 1 1/8 mile Fountain of Youth (via disqualification of the "real" winner), and tends to produce sprinters such as Northern Passion and Get Happy Minister. Her grandsire, however, is Giant's Causeway: one the most decorated distance influences still in the breeding shed. Among his recent distance-covering offspring are Arcadius (recently the winner of a 24 furlong steeplechase), Dalkala, and Creative Cause. First Samurai's dam is Freddie Frisson, who was a stakes winner at 6 furlongs. She was sired by Dixieland Band, who is the damsire of Kentucky Derby winners Street Sense and Monarchos. Executiveprivilege's dam is Refugee, who won at 1 1/8 miles and was stakes placed at 12 furlongs -- this is one of the coolest dams a horse could possibly have. Executiveprivilege's broodmare sire is Unaccounted For, who won the 1 1/8 mile Whitney and Jim Dandy, and came second to Cigar in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. This makes her third dam Davona Dale, who won two versions of the Triple Tiara. With a pedigree like this and such an easy way of going, I am left with little reason to doubt Executiveprivilege's ability to stretch her limbs as far as she needs.

(2) Dreaming of Julia: A filly I blogged about following her debut, Dreaming of Julia has reconfirmed my beliefs in her via a 16 1/2 length romp in the Meadow Star Stakes. Her pedigree, like Executiveprivilege's, is choc full of endurance. To begin with, Dreaming of Julia is sired by none other than the great distance sire: A.P. Indy. In addition to winning both the Belmont Stakes and BC Classic, A.P. Indy has sired Rags to Riches, Mineshaft, and Bernardini. Dreaming of Julia's grandsire is Seattle Slew. Her sire's dam is Weekend Surprise, who was sired by the great Secretariat. Her dam, Lassie Dear, is sired by Buckpasser. Dreaming of Julia is the first foal of Dream Rush, a Grade 1 winning sprinter sired by Wild Rush, winner of the Met Mile and Carter Handicap among other races. Wild Rush was successful up to 1 mile and 3/16ths. His sire, Wild Again, won the inaugural Breeders' Cup Classic. Wild Again is known for siring Belmont winner Sarava and Santa Anita Handicap victor Milwaukee Brew. Through this line, Dreaming of Julia traces back to the distance influences of Nearctic and Drone. Dreaming of Julia's granddam, Turbo Dream, is sired by the Kentucky Derby and Breeders' Cup Classic winning Unbridled. Unbridled is best known for siring Kentucky Derby winner Grindstone, who went on to sire Birdstone, who won the Belmont before going on to sire Smarty Jones. He also sired Belmont winner Empire Maker. I love, love, love this pedigree; if Dreaming of Julia can keep up her fabulous running, I can envision a classic fillies' race in her future.

(3) So Many Ways: Yet another mainstream favorite, So Many Ways recently conquered the Grade I Spinaway Stakes. This was the blaze-faced filly's second stakes victory out of her three, always-triumphant performances. As is the case with the two fillies above her, I have faith in So Many Way's abilities to perform well over an added ground. Although her pedigree might come up a touch short in the stamina division for a colt, it is just about right for the filly-distance races. Her sire is Sightseeing, who won the 1/8 mile Peter Pan Stakes; her grandsire is Pulpit, who won two influential Derby preps at 1 1/8 miles. Sightseeing's dam is Resort, who won up to 1 1/8 miles, and finished second in the 12 furlong Coaching Club American Oaks. Resort is sired by Pleasant Colony, who won both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes. So Many Way's dam is the unraced Happy Scene; he broodmare sire is Fountain of Youth winner Dehere. Her second dam is Really Happy, who won a GIII stakes at 1 1/16 miles.

(4) Tilde: Three times a winner in her four-race career, Tilde is fresh out of the Generous Portion Stakes: a listed stakes event that she won by a length. Like Executiveprivilege, Tilde has not raced over anything but a synthetic surface. Although she has wowed me with some very dominant performances, the competition that Tilde has not been particularly imposing; I'd like to see her compete in a graded stakes event. On the bright side, her pedigree does indeed contain plenty of stamina. Her sire, Swiss Yodeler, won the Hollywood Futurity at 1 1/16 miles; her dam, Self Taught, won up to 7 1/2 furlongs. Her damsire is Cee's Tizzy, who sired the two-time Breeders' Cup Classic winner Tiznow, who went on to sire Belmont winner Da' Tara.

 (5) Blueeyesintherein: Hailing from the barn of trainer Garry Simms, Blueeyesintherein has distinguished herself as a filly to watch with her two, decisive victories in both a very speedy Churchill MSW and the Debutante Stakes. To boot, her pedigree contains a fair lot of hope for handling an added stretch of ground. Her sire is Magna Graduate, who won major stakes at distances up to 1 3/16 miles. Her grandsire, Honor Grades, won up to 1 1/16 miles, but finished last in the Preakness Stakes. Her dam, Tartufi, won only once, in a 1-mile maiden claiming (by defection of the first-place horse). Her grandsire, Mr. Greeley, finished second in the BC Sprint; his sire, Gone West, won the Gotham Stakes, Dwyer Stakes, and Withers Stakes. Gone West was the damsire of Union Rags, the grandsire of Smarty Jones and the sire of Commendable. Blueeyesintherein's second dam is Black Truffles, who won at 1 1/8 miles on the turf.

(6) My Happy Face: After finishing second to track-record-setting Teen Pauline in her debut, My Happy Face cruised to a 21 length victory in a 5 1/2 furlong MSW. Clearly, this is a filly with loads of talent. Her pedigree implies that added distance should be more of an asset than a problem. My Happy Face is sired by Tiz Wonderful, who won the 1 1/16 mile Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. Her grandsire is the great Tiznow: two-time winner of the BC Classic, and sire of champions such as Da' Tara. Tiz Wonderful's dam, Evil, is sired by Hennessy, who sired BC Juvenile winner Johannesburg. My Happy Face's broodmare sire is Siberian Summer: winner of the Grade I Charles H. Strub Stakes at 10 furlongs.

(7) Sign: In her only start, Sign blew away a field of maiden special weight fillies by over 11 lengths. Her sire is Pulpit, who is a son of the influential distance stud A.P. Indy. Pulpit's dam is Preach, who won the 1-mile Frizette. Sign is out of Cross: winner up to one mile, and a daughter of Mighty, who won the 1 1/16 mile Louisiana Derby. I expect Sign to frequent the winner's circle into the upper furlong races.

 (8) Kauai Katie: One of many impressive Stonestreet fillies, Kauai Katie delivered a decisive second victory in the Grade II, 6 1/2 furlong Adirondack Sakes. In her debut, the bay filly ran away from the field by 12 lengths and earned herself a sky-high Beyer Speed Figure of 100. I have placed Kauai Katie on my top 10 solely due to her achievements; there is very little stamina to be found in her bloodlines. While her sire is Malibu Moon, who is a son of the great A.P. Indy, Kauai Katie's broodmare sire is More Than Ready, a sprinter who won the King's Bishop, but also came second in both the Bluegrass Stakes and Louisiana Derby. Her dam, More Than Pretty, never won past 6 furlongs. In fact, you must go back to her fifth dam, Jinsky, before you find hint of maternal endurance. Although I firmly believe that Kauai Katie has a star-studded career ahead of her, I doubt she'll find much success in longer-distance races like the Kentucky Oaks.

(9) Sensational Appeal: One of the few Michael Matz juveniles to win at first asking, Sensational Appeal is coming out from a stretch-driving triumph in a 5 1/2 furlong turf MSW. While this filly certainly has a level of talent, her pedigree suggests that she'll run her best while kept in the sprinters' division. Her dam, Zelna J, raced 52 times, mainly at distances around 6 furlongs. Her broodmare sire is Roy, who came second in the Sanford, but failed to show form at extended distances. Her sire, Successful Appeal, was a stakes-caliber sprinter who found success in multiple Grade II events. Her grandsire, Valid Appeal, won the Dwyer Handicap while it was still run at 1 1/8 miles. Her sire's dam, Successful Dancer, won at distances up to 1 mile and 70 yards. As is the case with Kauai Katie, I can envision Sensation Appeal flourishing while kept on condensed ground

(10) Yuzuru: Having raced only once, Yuzuru came within a whisker of stamping herself as one of the few Michael Matz horses to win first time at the post. Down the lane of her one mile, turf maiden special weight, she closed like a rocket, but came up a nose short at the wire. Of course, I am impressed that this filly is already covering a good deal of ground. More important, however, is the the lump of stamina in her pedigree. Yuzuru's sire is Medaglia d'Oro, who won the Whitney, Jim Dandy, and Travers, and came second in the Belmont and Breeders' Cup Classic. Her dam is Macerena Macerena, who won only once in her eleven race career. Her broodmare sire is Gone West: the sire of Commendable, grandsire of Smarty Jones, and damsire of Union Rags. Yuzuru's dosage profile is a handsome 7-3-13-3-0.

Terribly Great 2's: Triple Cross

On most occasions, my Terribly Great 2's is a seat reserved for the flashiest of juveniles -- those heading out of dominant, multi-length victories and clearly destined for a stakes triumph.
Today I highlight a more modest competitor. Triple Cross, a grey gelding from the barn of trainer Wayne Rice, has put in five solid efforts from just as many races. Three times he has come home with the victory, and twice he has pulled in a game second (albeit once due to the disqualification of another horse). Yesterday, he put the star on top of the tree with a valiant, stretch-driving win in a 6 1/2 furlong allowance at Presque Isle Downs. Although the winning margin was only a neck and the race was nothing but a six-horse allowance, I see reason in Triple Cross's performances and pedigree for him to transform into a quality stakes miler.



Triple Cross's first race came way back in May, in a 4 1/2 furlong maiden special weight on the dirt course of Presque Isle Downs. According to the chart caller's comment, the grey two-year-old "rallied at the quarter-pole between rivals, then drew off late" by over 4 lengths. I typically don't endorse these early-to-rise types who more than often wind up as cheap claimers. Triple Cross, however, has maintained his form throughout the summer months. In his second start -- a 5 furlong allowance in late June (also at Presque Isle) -- the gelding kicked off in late stretch to plow his way into first-place.

Beliefs in his gelding reconfirmed, owner Taylor Rice sent Triple Cross to Woodbine for the Colin Stakes. As usual, Triple Cross hung back toward the back of the field and waited for the turn to make his move. While he rallied eagerly, the gelding was still two lengths back from the winner - Joha - by the time his nose hit the wire. He was the third horse to touch the wire, but was rewarded second when the runner-up was disqualified for bumping another horse.

Despite having tasted defeat for the first time in his career, Triple Cross was shipped to Arlington for the 7 furlong Meadowlake Stakes. Although the gelding split horses and rushed into second, the only glimpse to be caught of Muppet Man was his bay haunch, four lengths ahead as he flashed past the wire. In Triple Cross's defense, trainer Wayne Rice pointed out that while the winner was given an ideal trip, he had instructed jockey Arienne Cox to take Triple Cross "back behind horses to give him an education". Another stakes was considered for the gelding's next race, but instead he was entered into a 6 1/2 furlong allowance at Presque Isle Downs. He stalked the pace, was caught in traffic, altered course, and was up late for the victory. Although it's hard to judge a horse's character while running in the allowance leagues, Triple Cross seems to be a hard-trying competitor who knows how to gut out a win.

Triple Cross's pedigree does not hint at hordes of hidden stamina. It does, however, suggest that distances around a mile could prove very much to his liking. His sire, Werblin, was a stakes-placed sprinter whose only two victories came early in his two-year-old year. His grandsire is the great Unbridled's Song -- famous (notorious?) for producing long-distance stakes horses such as Eight Belles, Dunkirk, and Midshipman. His sire, Unbridled, won the Kentucky Derby and has produced at least one winner of every Triple Crown race. Werblin's dam is Roll Over Baby, who won 10 of her 19 starts -- most of which were at distances around 6 furlongs (although she once won at 1 1/16 miles).

Triple Cross is the first foal from his dam, Scoot On By, who raced only once and lost by about 19 lengths. His broodmare sire, Catienus, won up to 1 1/16 miles, and finished second in the 10 furlong Suburban Handicap and Saratoga Breeders' Cup Handicap (twice). Among his Grade I -winning offspring are Precious Kitten (winner at distances up to 1 1/8 miles) and Dawn of War (winner up to 1 1/16 miles). Catienus is sired by the great Storm Cat, who has sired such notable runners as Courageous Cat, Tabasco Cat and Bluegrass Cat. Triple Cross's granddam is On Broadway, who once won at one mile in her nine-race career. She is sired by the great sprinter Rubiano, who won the Vosburgh Stakes (G1), the Forego Handicap (G2), the Tom Fool Stakes (G2), the NYRA Mile Handicap (G1), and the Carter Handicap (G1).

 With the distance influences shoved furthest back in his pedigree, I envision Triple Cross flourishing at distances around one mile. With proper conditioning, he might stretch out to 1 1/16 miles; here at the sprints, however, he seems to have a bright future unraveling. We may not truly know what sort of horse Triple Cross is until he takes the leap into stiffer competition -- regardless, I am excited by this gelding and his tooth-and-nail stretch drives. As Triple Cross journeys further into his career, you can bet I'll be there -- cheering him along every step of the way.

Top 10 Juvenile Colts (Edition #2)

It was less than a week ago that I forged the first edition of what is to become my top 10 series for the juvenile colts of 2012. I listed, in order of greatest to least, the two-year-old horses who have most impressed me thus far in their short careers.

Today, in the wake of yet another thrilling renewal of the Three Chimneys Hopeful Stakes (Grade II), I have refined my list to fit the division's current standings. Read, subscribe, and post your own favorites in the comment section!


(1) Spurious Precision: Due to Bern Identity's third place finish in the Hopeful Stakes, Spurious Precision now heads my list of Classic hopefuls. In this year's Saratoga Special, Spurious Precision hoisted the silks of Klaravich Stables through brutal early fractions of 21.35, 44, and 1:09.62, and drew off in the final yards to win in a time of 1:16.53, by a 5 length margin. There's no denying the precocious brilliance vested in this Rick Violette trainee. He's undefeated in both his races, and is heading toward the Champagne Stakes -- just like last year's 'Special winner, Union Rags. Very much like Union Rags himself, Spurious Precision's pedigree is not entirely solid on whether or not he can withstand the classic distances. Spurious Precision's sire is High Cotton, who never landed in the winner's circle past 1 1/16 miles. His grandsire is Dixie Union, who recently defied his reputation as a sire of sprinters with his son Union Rag's Belmont score. Dixie Union is sired by Dixieland Band, who is the damsire of Kentucky Derby winners Monarchos and Street Sense. High Cotton's dam is Happy Tune, who is sired by the great routing sire / Belmont + BC Classic winner, A.P. Indy. A.P. Indy is sired by Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew. Spurious Precision's dam, Scarlet Combo, is sired by Scarlet Ibis: a little-known sire who mostly produced sprinters such as Wild Wings, her daughter White Ibis, and Ruby Rubles. Scarlet Ibis was sired by Cormorant, who finished fourth in the Preakness and won the one and one-sixteenth mile Jersey Derby and Gotham Stakes. Spurious Precision's granddam is Don't Combo, who was sired by Right Combination, who traces back to Round Table and Princequillo. I believe that Spurious Precision has fairly good odds of stretching out to at least 1 1/8 miles, if not more. If you still believe in dosage indexes, good for you! His dosage of 1.55 is almost ideal.

(2) Brown Almighty: An undefeated colt heading to the Sunday Silence Stakes, Brown Almighty could very well be at the top of my list if it weren't for his lack of 1) running on dirt and 2) running in graded stakes. Nonetheless, he is a hugely promising contender for next year's longer distance races. His sire, Big Brown, won both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes. Brown Almighty's grandsire is Boundary, who raced only 8 times, and was twice a Grade III winner at the distance of 6 furlongs. Boundary was sired by Danzig, who won all three of his races before retiring due to knee issues. He is best known as the sire of the prolific GI winners Pine Bluff, Langfuhr, and Hard Spun. In addition, Danzig is the grandsire of Canadian Triple Crown winner Wando, and the damsire of Fusaichi Pegasus. Through Northern Dancer, both Danzig and Big Brown's dam lead us back to the great distance influence of Nearctic. Brown Almighty's damsire, Gone for Real, tends to produce shorter-distanced runners. Gone for Real is sired by Gone West, whose sons include Belmont winner Commendable, BC Mile champion Da Hoss, and 2000 Guineas victor Zafonic. He is the damsire of Belmont winner Union Rags, and the grandsire of Smarty Jones. All in all, Brown Almighty's pedigree -- while not the flashiest out there -- contains more than its share of distance ancestry. Don't be surprised if this chestnut colt goes on to perform great feats.

(3) Know More: In his only career start, J. Paul Reddam's Know More became the only first-time starter in Del Mar's history to nab a graded stakes event. For obvious reasons, this landed the handsome, bay colt near the top of my juvenile watch list. While the field for the Best Pal Stakes wasn't stellar, Know More was visually impressive in his thrilling dash down the stretch en route to a clear triumph. This colt's pedigree suggests that he should gobble up the added ground with a smile on his face. Know More is sired by Lion Heart, a stallion best known for finishing second to Smarty Jones in the 2004 Kentucky Derby. His grandsire is Tale of the Cat, the sire of Gio Ponti, Take of Ekati, Spellbinder, and Catboat. Tale of the Cat is sired by Storm Cat, whom is widely known for producing distance champions such as Bluegrass Cat, Courageous Cat, and Tabasco Cat. Lion Heart's dam, Satin Sunrise, raced 78 times in the claiming ranks, winning at distances of up to 1 1/8 miles. Know More's damsire is the great Seattle Slew. In addition to winning the Triple Crown, Seattle Slew is known for siring Grade 1 winners such as A.P. Indy, Landaluce and Slew O' Gold. He is the grandsire of Rags to Riches, Bernardini, and Lava Man, and the broodmare sire of Cigar. One of Seattle Slew's sons, Slewacide, served as broodmare sire to dual classic champ Funny Cide. Know More's granddam is Qui Bid, who was sired by Derby and Preakness winner Spectacular Bid. If Know More continues to run with the style and professionalism that we saw in his debut, I have little doubt that Doug O'Neill has found himself a serious BC Juvenile contender.
(To read more about Know More, read my article about him)

(4) Uncaptured: Three times Uncaptured has gone to post -- three times he was greeted by a wave of grins in his winner's circle reception. While he has never raced outside of Woodbine, Uncaptured is one of the untried sorts who sparkle with potential in each step they take. In his second race -- the Clarendon Stakes -- Uncaptured defeated future winner and near-track-record setter Jocosity (who I like quite a bit) by over 5 lengths; which is but a pale telling of the dominance that may be yet to come from this son of Lion Heart. His grandsire is Tale of the Cat, who was sired by Storm Cat. Lion Heart's dam, Satin Sunrise, raced an astounding 78 times. Uncaptured's broodmare sire is Arch, winner of the 10 furlong Super Derby and sire of Blame, Arravale, and Hymn Book; he is the broodmare sire of I'll Have Another and Uncle Mo. Uncaptured's granddam is Andrea Ruckus, whose sire, Bold Ruckus, is sired by Boldnesian, Seattle Slew's grandsire. While there's a lot of sprinting power in Uncaptured's pedigree, there's stamina, too: he should be able to stretch his limbs for a good many more furlongs.

(5) Maybe So: In both of his two races -- a maiden special weight and the Mountaineer Juvenile Stakes -- this brown has emerged with a perfect record still intact. Whether it was in his pace-setting first performance, or his mad rally down the Mountaineer stretch, Maybe So has consistently impressed upon me his potential for greatness. His sire, More Than Ready, won the Sanford Stakes, placed fourth in the Kentucky Derby, and won the GI King's Bishop. He has sired three BC winners: Pluck (Juvenile Turf), Regally Ready (Turf Sprint), and More Than Real (Juvenile Fillies' Turf). Maybe So's grandsire is Southern Halo, the most successful sire in Argentine history: among his 167 stakes winners is Edenwold, who won the Queen's Plate. More Than Ready's dam is Woodman's Girl, who was sired by Woodman; the sire of Belmont + Preakness winner Hansel, BC Juvenile + Preakness winner Timber Country, One Thousand Guineas winner Bosra Sham, and Queen's Plate winner Woodcarver. Woodman traces back to the Nearco line on both his paternal and maternal sides. Maybe So's damsire, Grand Slam, won the 1 1/8 mile Peter Pan Stakes, and sired graded stakes victor Limehouse and BC Sprint winner Cajun. He is sired by Gone West. Maybe So's granddam is stakes placed Pine for Me, who is sired by Preakness winner Pine Bluff. Maybe So's pedigree suggests that stretching out in distance should be little of a problem -- I look forward to watching him run, and hopefully bump up in my personal rankings.

(6) Jocosity: While victorious in only one of his three starts, I believe that Jocosity has as much of a right to this list as any of the undefeated, one-race wonders. Not only in his seven length, five and one-half furlong score -- nearly track-record breaking in a zippy time of 1:02.85 -- has Jocosity displayed his brilliance; this colt's bloodline is festooned with stamina. His sire, Sharp Humor, finished second to Barbaro in the Florida Derby prior to fading to 18th in the Kentucky Derby. Sharp Humor is sired by Distorted Humor, who has made his name known internationally as the sire of champions Funny Cide, Commentator, and Drosselmeyer; recently, Distorted Humor served as the grandsire to Triple Crown star I'll Have Another. Sharp Humor's dam is Bellona, whose sire, Hansel, won both the Preakness and the Belmont. Hansel's sire, Woodman, is also the sire of Timber Country, Bosra Sham, and Woodcarver. Jocosity's broodmare sire, Stormy Atlantic, is sired by the ever-popular Storm Cat. His dam, Hail Atlantis, was sired by Seattle Slew. Jocosity's damsire is Carson City Sham, whose sire - Carson City - served as the broodmare sire for the late, great Barbaro and recently retired Havre de Grace. Carson City Sham's dam, Sham Say, was a Grade I winning mare who traces back to Secretariat's greatest rival (and one of my favorite racehorses), Sham. Although it's unlikely that Jocosity will add his name to the elite list of those found in his ancestry, a future among the classic-distance races is very real possibility.

(7) Fredericksburg: A horse who should be receiving much more attention than he is; following a green first performance in which he finished fourth, Fredericksburg easily conquered a 1 1/16 mile MSW over the Saratoga turf course. Trained by Michael Matz, who is known for conditioning slow developers, Fredericksburg shows promise not only in having covered distance this early in his career, but in his pedigree as well. His sire, Speightstown, was a 6-7 furlong horse who won the BC Sprint; while he is mostly known as a sire of sprinters, Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Haynesfield stands among his most accomplished offspring. Speightstown's sire is Gone West: the sire of Belmont winner Commendable, grandsire of Smarty Jones, and damsire of Union Rags. Speightstown's dam is Silken Cat, who won at 1 1/16 miles in one of her four starts. Silken Cat is sired by Storm Cat, who sired dozen of Grade 1 winners throughout his stud career, among which are routers Courageous Cat, Tabasco Cat, and Bluegrass Cat. Fredericksburg's dam is Choreograph, who also won at 1 1/16 miles on the turf. His broodmare sire is the late Dynaformer; a sire considered by many to be one of the most reliable branches of stamina in the business. Among others Dynaformer sired Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro, Melbourne Cup winner Americain, St. Leger winner Lucarno, and Breeders' Cup Grand National winner McDynamo. Dynaformer himself is sired by Epsom Derby winner Roberto. Fredericksburg's broodmare sire is Dance for Vanny. With a pedigree like this - teeming with stamina - Fredericksburg has only to prove that he's speedy enough (and dirt-efficient) to keep up with the rest of this crop. If so, I have great faith in his abilities to fly down the stretch and topple the favorites.

(8) Micromanage: Yet another Repole/Pletcher colt to hit it big-time onto the juvenile scene, Micromanage won brilliantly in his only race -- a 7 furlong MSW that he nabbed by five-lengths. While undeniably speedy, Micromanage's bloodlines (Medaglia d'Oro x Catnip) harbor several good reasons that he might hit the spotlights in next year's classic races.

(9) Arch Warrior: Even before he broke his maiden by a romping three-lengths, Arch Warrior was surrounded by a hype worth of a horse who'd already won the 2-Year-Old Championships. Scores of race fans have Arch Warrior labeled as either their Derby horse or their top two-year-old -- and only after a 6 furlong triumph clocked in a time of 1:10. While I refuse to buy in to the extent of the gossip until this colt has proven himself against more seasoned competition, I can't deny him a spot on the lower tiers of my Top 10 list. However over-fantasized this Pletcher trainee may have become, he is still a talented colt with a promising heritage. I won't go into depth about Archwarrior's pedigree, but in brief: his dosage profile of 6-3-18-3-0 is only a foretelling of the multiple distance strains nested in the branches of his Arch - Winner's Edge family tree.

(10) Onetwentyeight: Although Onetwentyeight failed to triumph in his most recent outing - the Sanford Stakes - I still harbor firm beliefs in this colt's ability to survive the long distances, and ultimately, shine. In the Sanford, he rallied valiantly into the stretch, and while it was only enough to secure himself third, Onetwentyeight proceeded to gallop out in front of his rivals. His sire is Discreet Cat, who suffered a throat abscess in his only distance attempt. Discreet Cat is sired by Forestry, who sired the 2011 Preakness winner, Shackleford. Discreet Cat's dam, Pretty Discreet, found victory in the 10 furlong Alabama Stakes; her sire, Private Account, won the Jim Dandy Stakes. Onetwentyeight's dam is Box of Joy, an unraced mare sired by the great Concerto, who triumphed at distances of up to 10 furlongs. Concerto's sire is Chief's Crown, who won the Travers Stakes and finished in the money in all three of the Triple Crown races. Make no mistake about it -- Onetwentyeight is bred for distance. As the ground increases, expect his abilities to follow suit.


Honorable Mentions

Shanghai Bobby: Undefeated and having just emerged from a fantastic triumph in the Hopeful Stakes, Shanghai Bobby has landed himself on the top of all handicappers' radar. Headed toward the Champagne Stakes, and possibly the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, there is much to look forward to from this powerful son of Harlan's Holiday. Although certainly wowed by all three of his performances, I do not place Shanghai Bobby on my Top 10 list because of the distance limitations in his pedigree.

Bern Identity: Last week residing on the top of my list, Bern Identity has been bumped into the honorable mentions following a dull, third-place effort in the Hopeful Stakes. Although I believe there may be more distance than speed in his pedigree, there is no excusing how Bern Identity lacked response when called upon into the stretch of the 7 furlong affair. I have not given up on this colt, however, and highly anticipate his next start.

Archer Hill: A horse whose pedigree I discussed in detail in my last Top 10, Archer Hill was brilliant in his only race -- a mile and a sixteenth win on the turf.