Is 2012 the Year of a Triple Crown ... Spoiler?

As the field for the Belmont Stakes gradually takes a solid form, all eyes are on the chestnut son of Flower Alley. If he wins this race, I'll Have Another will secure his place among champions such as Seattle Slew, Secretariat, Whirlaway, and Affirmed as only the 12th Triple Crown winner in the history of the sport. It has been a winding road since 1978, when Affirmed battled Alydar in three of the most grueling stretch runs ever to grace the Sport of Kings. It has been 34 years since Affirmed won the crown; many near misses have ensued.


2004 Belmont Stakes; Birdstone upsets Smarty Jones

In 2003, Funny Cide took the Derby and Preakness only to come up short in the deep mud of the Belmont Stakes, finishing third behind Empire Maker and Ten Most Wanted. Both of the top two horses had skipped the Preakness in favor of the Triple Crown's final jewel.


In 2004, Smarty Jones conquered the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, the latter by a record-smashing 11 1/2 lengths. He went on to become a huge fan favorite for the Belmont Stakes; the crowd in attendance was the largest for any New York sporting event in history. But the Triple Crown was not to be. After running the opening mile & quarter in a time that would have captured all but three Kentucky Derbies in horse racing history, Smarty Jones was upset by a tremendous rally from the 36-1 Birdstone. Birdstone, who had finished 8th in the Kentucky Derby, was coming off a 5 week rest after skipping the Preakness Stakes.


In 2008, Big Brown became the first horse since 1929 to capture the Derby from slot 20 of the starting gate. He romped by nearly 5 lengths over filly Eight Belles; his powerful performance was much overshadowed by the tragic breakdown of the runner-up. In the Preakness, he triumphed again, winning by 5 lengths over Macho Again. A week after his victory, a quarter crack was discovered in Big Brown's left front hoof; it was stitched together with steel wire, and the impressive colt resumed training. But in the 140th running of the Belmont Stakes, Big Brown shocked the world by becoming the only horse in Triple Crown history to win the Derby and Preakness only to come up last in the Belmont.

If history has anything to say about his chances, I'll Have Another should not be relied on to pull off a Belmont victory against this year's unusually deep field. Many have noted the parallels between the chestnut son of Flower Alley and the last Triple Crown winner, Affirmed. While these similarities are undeniable, so are those between Belmont contender Union Rags and Triple Crown "killer" Birdstone.

Debuts:
Both kicked off their 2 year old seasons in winning style. Birdstone romped at Saratoga, sweeping away at the first turn to win by 12 lengths. Union Rags, also making his move throughout the turn, moved past the leaders to win his debut by a solid, but less fashionable, 2 lengths.

2nd Start:
Birdstone made a huge leap from maiden special weight company to the G1 Hopeful. After a troubled break, he sat unhurried toward the back of the pack, angled 5 wide at the top of the stretch, but showed little closing kick and finished fourth. Union Rags, too, went straight from his maiden to graded company. In the G2 Saratoga Special, the son of Dixie Union followed up his troubled start with a battle for the early lead. Coming from the turn, he kicked away from the rest of the field before swerving sharply at the sixteenth pole, reportedly at the brightness of the tote board amid the rainy gloom. Union Rags was put to task by a tap of the whip, and straightened out to draw away by over 7 lengths. "Union Rags," cried the announcer, "Just a 2 year old frolicking in the mud!"

Champagne Stakes: 
Both Birdstone and Union Rags went on to win the Champagne Stakes. Union Rags was caught in traffic coming into the stretch, but displayed a remarkable mentality and turn of foot by splitting rivals and dashing away to take the prize by 5 lengths. Coming off a much clear trip, Birdstone conquered the same race by 2 1/4 lengths in a much-slower time of 1:44 (Union Rags won it by 1:35).

The Kentucky Derby:
Birdstone ran two races coming up to the Derby - an allowance (1st) and the Lanes End Stakes (5th). Union Rags ran three - the Breeder's Cup Juvenile (2nd), the Fountain of Youth (1st), and the Florida Derby  (3rd). In the Derby itself, Birdstone and Union Rags were both pinched at the start. But while Birdstone worked his way up at the half mile pole, and raced well within striking distance with no response (he finished 8th), Union Rags was shoved back to 18th place for the majority of the race. At the far turn he made up ground, and rallied up for a fast closing 7th.

The Preakness: 
Both Birdstone and Union Rags skipped the Preakness in order to be better rested for the Belmont Stakes. In 2004, Smarty Jones won both the Derby and the Preakness. In 2012, I'll Have Another won both the Derby and the Preakness.

Dosage Index:
A horse's dosage index is said to determine how well he handles extra distance. Although this is not the ultimate test of a horse's stamina, the lower is better for routing. Birdstone's dosage index of 1.77 was much lower than Derby and Preakness winner Smarty Jone's dosage index of 3.40. Union Rag's dosage index of 2.14 is slightly higher than I'll Have Another's dosage index of 2.11.

The Belmont Stakes:
For Birdstone, the Belmont Stakes played out like a fairy tale. Coming into the stretch, he bore down on a tiring Smarty Jones to lead the final furlong in the fastest recorded since the initiation of electronic timing in 2002. At a highly overlooked 36-1, Birdstone stole the Triple Crown.
As for Union Rags? Come June 9th, we'll see.

Union Rags romps in the Fountain of Youth.