Tuesday, September 11, 2012

Top 10 Juvenile Fillies (Edition #1)

With the autumn equinox only a week away, the time has come to start picking my top choices for the juvenile fillies' divisions of this year's Breeders' Cup. This marks the first post featuring my top 10 two-year-old fillies. Expect several more of these lists, each one quite different from those before it; the juvenile fillies have a bit of a reputation as being too slippery to handicap.



My Miss Aurelia takes the 2011 BC Juvenile Fillies


(1) Executiveprivilege: Considered almost unanimously to be the top two-year-old filly, Executiveprivilege has scored four victories from just as many starts. Most recently, she became a Grade I winner by conquering the Del Mar Debutante Stakes. For the most part, Executiveprivilege's pedigree suggests that added ground should not pose much of a threat. Her sire, First Samurai, won the 1 1/8 mile Fountain of Youth (via disqualification of the "real" winner), and tends to produce sprinters such as Northern Passion and Get Happy Minister. Her grandsire, however, is Giant's Causeway: one the most decorated distance influences still in the breeding shed. Among his recent distance-covering offspring are Arcadius (recently the winner of a 24 furlong steeplechase), Dalkala, and Creative Cause. First Samurai's dam is Freddie Frisson, who was a stakes winner at 6 furlongs. She was sired by Dixieland Band, who is the damsire of Kentucky Derby winners Street Sense and Monarchos. Executiveprivilege's dam is Refugee, who won at 1 1/8 miles and was stakes placed at 12 furlongs -- this is one of the coolest dams a horse could possibly have. Executiveprivilege's broodmare sire is Unaccounted For, who won the 1 1/8 mile Whitney and Jim Dandy, and came second to Cigar in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. This makes her third dam Davona Dale, who won two versions of the Triple Tiara. With a pedigree like this and such an easy way of going, I am left with little reason to doubt Executiveprivilege's ability to stretch her limbs as far as she needs.

(2) Dreaming of Julia: A filly I blogged about following her debut, Dreaming of Julia has reconfirmed my beliefs in her via a 16 1/2 length romp in the Meadow Star Stakes. Her pedigree, like Executiveprivilege's, is choc full of endurance. To begin with, Dreaming of Julia is sired by none other than the great distance sire: A.P. Indy. In addition to winning both the Belmont Stakes and BC Classic, A.P. Indy has sired Rags to Riches, Mineshaft, and Bernardini. Dreaming of Julia's grandsire is Seattle Slew. Her sire's dam is Weekend Surprise, who was sired by the great Secretariat. Her dam, Lassie Dear, is sired by Buckpasser. Dreaming of Julia is the first foal of Dream Rush, a Grade 1 winning sprinter sired by Wild Rush, winner of the Met Mile and Carter Handicap among other races. Wild Rush was successful up to 1 mile and 3/16ths. His sire, Wild Again, won the inaugural Breeders' Cup Classic. Wild Again is known for siring Belmont winner Sarava and Santa Anita Handicap victor Milwaukee Brew. Through this line, Dreaming of Julia traces back to the distance influences of Nearctic and Drone. Dreaming of Julia's granddam, Turbo Dream, is sired by the Kentucky Derby and Breeders' Cup Classic winning Unbridled. Unbridled is best known for siring Kentucky Derby winner Grindstone, who went on to sire Birdstone, who won the Belmont before going on to sire Smarty Jones. He also sired Belmont winner Empire Maker. I love, love, love this pedigree; if Dreaming of Julia can keep up her fabulous running, I can envision a classic fillies' race in her future.

(3) So Many Ways: Yet another mainstream favorite, So Many Ways recently conquered the Grade I Spinaway Stakes. This was the blaze-faced filly's second stakes victory out of her three, always-triumphant performances. As is the case with the two fillies above her, I have faith in So Many Way's abilities to perform well over an added ground. Although her pedigree might come up a touch short in the stamina division for a colt, it is just about right for the filly-distance races. Her sire is Sightseeing, who won the 1/8 mile Peter Pan Stakes; her grandsire is Pulpit, who won two influential Derby preps at 1 1/8 miles. Sightseeing's dam is Resort, who won up to 1 1/8 miles, and finished second in the 12 furlong Coaching Club American Oaks. Resort is sired by Pleasant Colony, who won both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes. So Many Way's dam is the unraced Happy Scene; he broodmare sire is Fountain of Youth winner Dehere. Her second dam is Really Happy, who won a GIII stakes at 1 1/16 miles.

(4) Tilde: Three times a winner in her four-race career, Tilde is fresh out of the Generous Portion Stakes: a listed stakes event that she won by a length. Like Executiveprivilege, Tilde has not raced over anything but a synthetic surface. Although she has wowed me with some very dominant performances, the competition that Tilde has not been particularly imposing; I'd like to see her compete in a graded stakes event. On the bright side, her pedigree does indeed contain plenty of stamina. Her sire, Swiss Yodeler, won the Hollywood Futurity at 1 1/16 miles; her dam, Self Taught, won up to 7 1/2 furlongs. Her damsire is Cee's Tizzy, who sired the two-time Breeders' Cup Classic winner Tiznow, who went on to sire Belmont winner Da' Tara.

 (5) Blueeyesintherein: Hailing from the barn of trainer Garry Simms, Blueeyesintherein has distinguished herself as a filly to watch with her two, decisive victories in both a very speedy Churchill MSW and the Debutante Stakes. To boot, her pedigree contains a fair lot of hope for handling an added stretch of ground. Her sire is Magna Graduate, who won major stakes at distances up to 1 3/16 miles. Her grandsire, Honor Grades, won up to 1 1/16 miles, but finished last in the Preakness Stakes. Her dam, Tartufi, won only once, in a 1-mile maiden claiming (by defection of the first-place horse). Her grandsire, Mr. Greeley, finished second in the BC Sprint; his sire, Gone West, won the Gotham Stakes, Dwyer Stakes, and Withers Stakes. Gone West was the damsire of Union Rags, the grandsire of Smarty Jones and the sire of Commendable. Blueeyesintherein's second dam is Black Truffles, who won at 1 1/8 miles on the turf.

(6) My Happy Face: After finishing second to track-record-setting Teen Pauline in her debut, My Happy Face cruised to a 21 length victory in a 5 1/2 furlong MSW. Clearly, this is a filly with loads of talent. Her pedigree implies that added distance should be more of an asset than a problem. My Happy Face is sired by Tiz Wonderful, who won the 1 1/16 mile Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. Her grandsire is the great Tiznow: two-time winner of the BC Classic, and sire of champions such as Da' Tara. Tiz Wonderful's dam, Evil, is sired by Hennessy, who sired BC Juvenile winner Johannesburg. My Happy Face's broodmare sire is Siberian Summer: winner of the Grade I Charles H. Strub Stakes at 10 furlongs.

(7) Sign: In her only start, Sign blew away a field of maiden special weight fillies by over 11 lengths. Her sire is Pulpit, who is a son of the influential distance stud A.P. Indy. Pulpit's dam is Preach, who won the 1-mile Frizette. Sign is out of Cross: winner up to one mile, and a daughter of Mighty, who won the 1 1/16 mile Louisiana Derby. I expect Sign to frequent the winner's circle into the upper furlong races.

 (8) Kauai Katie: One of many impressive Stonestreet fillies, Kauai Katie delivered a decisive second victory in the Grade II, 6 1/2 furlong Adirondack Sakes. In her debut, the bay filly ran away from the field by 12 lengths and earned herself a sky-high Beyer Speed Figure of 100. I have placed Kauai Katie on my top 10 solely due to her achievements; there is very little stamina to be found in her bloodlines. While her sire is Malibu Moon, who is a son of the great A.P. Indy, Kauai Katie's broodmare sire is More Than Ready, a sprinter who won the King's Bishop, but also came second in both the Bluegrass Stakes and Louisiana Derby. Her dam, More Than Pretty, never won past 6 furlongs. In fact, you must go back to her fifth dam, Jinsky, before you find hint of maternal endurance. Although I firmly believe that Kauai Katie has a star-studded career ahead of her, I doubt she'll find much success in longer-distance races like the Kentucky Oaks.

(9) Sensational Appeal: One of the few Michael Matz juveniles to win at first asking, Sensational Appeal is coming out from a stretch-driving triumph in a 5 1/2 furlong turf MSW. While this filly certainly has a level of talent, her pedigree suggests that she'll run her best while kept in the sprinters' division. Her dam, Zelna J, raced 52 times, mainly at distances around 6 furlongs. Her broodmare sire is Roy, who came second in the Sanford, but failed to show form at extended distances. Her sire, Successful Appeal, was a stakes-caliber sprinter who found success in multiple Grade II events. Her grandsire, Valid Appeal, won the Dwyer Handicap while it was still run at 1 1/8 miles. Her sire's dam, Successful Dancer, won at distances up to 1 mile and 70 yards. As is the case with Kauai Katie, I can envision Sensation Appeal flourishing while kept on condensed ground

(10) Yuzuru: Having raced only once, Yuzuru came within a whisker of stamping herself as one of the few Michael Matz horses to win first time at the post. Down the lane of her one mile, turf maiden special weight, she closed like a rocket, but came up a nose short at the wire. Of course, I am impressed that this filly is already covering a good deal of ground. More important, however, is the the lump of stamina in her pedigree. Yuzuru's sire is Medaglia d'Oro, who won the Whitney, Jim Dandy, and Travers, and came second in the Belmont and Breeders' Cup Classic. Her dam is Macerena Macerena, who won only once in her eleven race career. Her broodmare sire is Gone West: the sire of Commendable, grandsire of Smarty Jones, and damsire of Union Rags. Yuzuru's dosage profile is a handsome 7-3-13-3-0.



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