Pennsylvania Derby 2012: Field Overview

Following an edge-of-your-seat finish in the Travers Stakes (G1) that resulted in a dead heat between favored Alpha and long shot Golden Ticket, the Pennsylvania Derby (G2) has been the recipient of much hype and enthusiasm. This Saturday, the closely matched twosome will be battling it out at Parx Racing for a highly-anticipated round II. Like thousands of race fans, I am looked forward to watching this race, and hopefully seeing the two colts' neck-and-neck abilities develop into a full-scale rivalry.

In hopes of shedding some light on the pack lined up for tomorrow's Penn Derby, I have compiled a list of the horses in contention. Here you will find a brief snapshot of each runner's career, and my opinions on their chances of posing in the winner's circle.

To Honor and Serve sets a new track record in the 2011 Penn Derby

(1) Stephanoatsee: One of the longer prices in the field, Stephanoatsee enters the Penn Derby off of a one-length triumph in an 8 furlong allowance optional claiming at Delaware Park over a slightly wet track. In a prior effort, he finished second to Alpha in the Count Fleet Stakes. Although this is a solid horse on the improve, Stephanoatsee has never raced at Parx, and never won a stakes event. While he may be a good long shot play, I see no huge indication that Stephanoatsee is ready to conquer the Travers winner(s).

(2) Casual Trick: In his most recent start, Casual trick captured a one-mile Parx allowance race over Preakness contender Tiger Walk. His second-to-last start also occurred at Parx Racing; it, too, an allowance event that he won with ease. Earlier in the year, Casual Trick finished a close second to Reveron in the Gulfstream Park Derby; he also participated in the Wood Memorial (G1), but was pulled up into the stretch due to a continuation of the breathing problems that have plagued him throughout his career. While he'll need to make a huge step up in class to lasso this race, I believe that Casual Trick has good odds of doing so. Perhaps if he's finally overcome the problems with flipping his palate, Casual Trick can advance onto the Breeders' Cup scene.

(3) Handsome Mike: Sent off at the co-longest morning line in the field (20-1), Handsome Mike has only a (turf) maiden victory at Santa Anita to stand to his credit. In all of his last three races (G1 Secretariat Stakes, G1 Haskell, G3 Spiral Stakes), this Doug O'Neill trainee has consistently managed to come home fourth. If this colt triumphs in the Penn Derby, I will be completely and genuinely startled.

(4) Alpha: Winner of both the Jim Dandy (G2) and Travers (G1), and never worse than second in all but two starts at Churchill Downs(the Kentucky Derby and BC Juvenile), Alpha is favored for several good reasons. He has never raced at Parx Racing, but is coming off two bullet works at Greentree Training Center. True, there is no value to be made off this horse alone. Regardless, expect him to be making lots of noise coming down the stretch -- and very possibly, winning.

(5) Junebugred: Like Handsome Mile, Junebugred has been documented at a hefty morning-line of 20-1. A ridgling with 6 starts under his belt, this three-year-old is emerging from a fourth-place finishing in a very sloppy Smarty Jones Stakes (G3). His only victories come from an MSW at Aqueduct, and in Oaklawn's version of the Smarty Jones Stakes. Unless I'm missing something from this horse's works (he is coming out of a near-bullet 5 furlongs), he doesn't look to be too serious of a contender.

(6) Golden Ticket: Co-winner of the Travers Stakes (G1), and in the money in 7 of his 10 lifetime starts. Although his two wins have been strung out over a period of time, Golden Ticket is an always-trying sort of horse. Be looking for Golden Ticket to grab a piece of the big paycheck, in one way or another.

(7) Csaba: In his last start, Csaba struggled with the turf in the Equalize Stakes. Before that, however, he finished second in the 9 furlong National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame Stakes (G2), and won the El Kaiser Stakes by over 8 lengths. This is a gritty horse who, like Golden Ticket, always seems to dig in. At 5-1, he may be well worth the play!

(8) Macho Macho: Winner of the 9 furlong West Virginia Derby (G2) and second to My Adonis in the Long Branch Stakes, Macho Macho is another great play in the Pennsylvania Derby who may be overshadowed by the presence of Alpha. Coming off of a win over the same conditions (minus the track) as tomorrow's race, I could easily envision Macho Macho stealing the G1 winners' crown!


My Top 3
Alpha
Macho Macho
Golden Ticket

Long Shot Selection
Casual Trick